Attempts at a democratic transition spiraled out of control as armed groups built up local power bases and sided with rival political factions to control economic assets.
After the Battle for Tripoli in 2014, a faction including most of the parliamentarians turned east and recognized Khalifa Haftar as military chief, eventually establishing a parallel government.
Armed factions controlling western Libya came together to support the Tripoli government against Haftar and repelled its attack with Turkish help in 2020, prompting a ceasefire and a new UN-backed peace process.
How did the latest controversy unfold?
In eastern Libya, parliament declared Dabibah’s government illegal and appointed a new government under Fathi Bashaga. Dabibah rejected the move, saying he would step down only after the elections.
Meanwhile the western Libyan factions that had joined together against Haftar were again fighting for position with occasional skirmishes in Tripoli, and some saw Bashagha as their best bet for advancement. .
Bashagha tried to enter Tripoli shortly after being deputed in March, but his convoy was intercepted by pro-Dabbe groups. He tried again in May, but left Tripoli after a brief shootout.
As the months went by, alliances and alliances shifted between Tripoli factions as both Dabeba and Bashaga tried to court key players. Armed forces stormed each other’s territory on the streets of Tripoli.
What are the chances of a political deal?
Haftar’s powerful Eastern faction and parliament speaker Aguila Saleh has shown little willingness to compromise on his goal of ousting Dabeba and establishing Bashagha.
Although Bashagha appears unable to form a coalition of Western factions that could set him up in Tripoli, he may have to rethink.
Turkey’s continued military presence around Tripoli, where it maintained air bases with drones after helping quell an eastern offensive in 2020, means another week of offensive against the capital is very unlikely for now.
Some politicians have taken up the idea of another attempt to form a new government that all parties can accept – something that Dabiba will try to block.
Meanwhile, diplomacy has stalled and consensus on how to hold elections as a permanent solution to Libya’s political disputes looks more distant than ever.
International efforts to broker the agreement have been hampered by disagreements between the countries involved and local factions, which many Libyans believe want to avoid elections in order to remain in power.
Many of Libya’s population of around 7 million fear that whatever the next period of talks and the situation, it will only be followed by another outbreak of violence.
How does this affect Libyan oil?
Groups have repeatedly stopped production as a tactic to pressure the government in Tripoli, where all foreign oil sales revenue is channeled to the central bank through international agreements.
Forces aligned with Haftar, whose sway spans most of the region, including main oil fields and export terminals, are responsible for the largest shutdowns in recent years.
The last shutdown, which slashed exports by almost half, ended when Dabibah replaced the head of the National Oil Corporation with Haftar’s aide – a move that some saw as bringing the eastern commander to court and calling him a political deal. Seen as an attempt to make it more open to
This may be enough to prevent another shutdown while pro-Bashagha factions work on their next move. But so far from the resolution of Libya’s political confusion, there is little chance that oil exports will remain untouched for much longer.