APrime Minister Narendra Modi, who won the assembly elections in three states in 2023, made fun of the opposition for a caste census, while addressing the BJP workers in Delhi, called it an attempt to divide the country. “For me, there are only four castes in India – women, youth, farmers and poor,” he said. However, the recent change of the Modi government on the caste census has raised questions about its political motivations.
Finally, since 2023, both Modi and other top BJP leaders have depicted the demand of Congress and regional parties for a caste census as a conspiracy to divide the society. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath also raised the slogan of “Battlege for Catang” (if we divide, we will be destroyed) to consolidate Hindu society.
In fact, in 2021, the Modi government had a lump sum rejected Any proposal for caste census in Parliament. And yet, after a recent meeting of the Cabinet Committee (CCPA) on political matters, the government announced that caste figures would be included in the upcoming census – a step that shocked the opposition. BJP leaders described it as “Surgical strike“On the demand for Rahul Gandhi’s caste census.
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But the big question is why the BJP is – which has been vaccinated on this issue for a long time – has now agreed to do a caste census? What political benefits do BJP expect from this decision to get? Can it indicate a new phase in political empowerment of backward castes? And is it like the parties of Mandal-era, such as Samajwadi Party and Rashtra Janata Dal (RJD) to rethink their strategies? Hence the caste census is the news producer of Theprint.
Also read: Telangana caste survey result is an opportunity and trap for Rahul Gandhi
Modi government caste census u-turn
One of the major reasons behind the BJP’s 2014 victory was the ability to go beyond the traditional Brahmin-Baniya voter base. Through social engineering, it formed a comprehensive social alliance with OBCs, Dalits and Edivasis.
But in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, many backward castes – a plan to change the Constitution by fearful of BJP’s alleged plans – India transferred to the coalition block. The BJP fell to 240 from 303 seats, despite the construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya and banking on Hindutva, and depended on allies such as Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desm Party (TDP). In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav’s fast OBC-dalit arithmetic outflow Modi, which was introduced by the BJP as the biggest OBC leader. The BJP also caused heavy shocks in Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
Although the BJP gained some basis through victory in the assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, strategists within the party were worried. Congress Chief Minister Karnataka And Telangana started implementing caste surveys, which threatened the chip on the BJP’s OBC base, which was created by the party through social engineering.
Adding this, the final nationwide caste survey was conducted in 1931; The 1941 census included caste calculations, but the report was never published. In 2011, leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav pushed the UPA led by Manmohan Singh to census a caste census. While under Pranab Mukherjee, a group of ministers recommended it, the government settled for a socio-economic and caste census (SECC)-the findings were never released by the Modi government.
After the 2024 election results, warning signs became a starker. According to CSDS data, in Bihar, the NDA lost 12% of the Kurmi-Kori OBC vote (compared to 2019), while the India Block received a completely 9%-maladrop at NDA expenses. Between other OBCs, the loss of NDA was 21%mass. In Dalit groups such as Dusadh, Pasi and Jatav, the NDA lost 19%, while the India block increased by 28%. In Uttar Pradesh, the NDA lost 19% of the Kurmi-Kori vote and 13% other OBCs, while the India block increased by 20% and 16% respectively.
These numbers confirmed that the social alliance of the BJP formed in the last decade was beginning to crack. BJP strategists felt that the combination of Mandal and Kamandal politics was no longer alternative – this was necessary. The decision to allow caste calculation was thus a calibrated political step, which was coming just before the Bihar assembly elections. It is also expected to benefit the NDA in Bihar, where Nitish Kumar of JD (U) was the first leader to conduct a caste survey and expands reservation for extremely backward classes (EBCs) and Mahadalits – 43 percent of the vote banks that BJP also want to tap.
With caste census, NDA is expected to strengthen their appeal among non-head OBC groups-many of them feel marginalized. In states like UP and Bihar, backward groups like Maurya and Kushwaha are rapidly challenging the chief Yadav. A new type of empowerment politics can begin, in which small OBC groups demand proportional representation for their real numbers.
How Modi government quickly corrects the syllabus
According to BJP leaders, a major symptom of the Modi government is its accountability. If it is conscious that public sentiment is strong, it does not hesitate to reverse the course.
When Rahul Gandhi “labels” Modi governmentSuit-boot government“The BJP replied by starting welfare schemes like Jan Dhan and Ujjwala for the poor.
Demonetisation was also implicated as a surgical strike on the rich to benefit the poor.
In 2015, when Rahul Gandhi used the Land Acquisition Bill to woo the farmers, the government quietly gave shelter to reform.
The BJP lost the 2018 assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh after the BJP – and saw protests from the upper castes – it quickly passed 10 percent EWS reservation.
The farm laws presented during Modi’s second term were once staged by farmers across the country for more than a year.
Similarly, after years of opposing caste census, the Modi government felt that Hindutva alone could not lay down its social base together. To expand its appeal among the backward castes, it adopted the census of the caste.
Mandal 2.0, OBC Sub-Charani, and more quota
However, this step raises the prickly question. The government will now have to decide whether to use the central OBC list or include state-specific lists, which are significantly different. Another dilemma is whether the upper castes have to count as a single group or disagree, as Bihar did. Each of these options carries political and administrative consequences.
Political experts say that once the caste census data is released, the government will also have to address the issue of sub-region within the OBC. The Rohini Commission was established to deal with this – to identify less major OBC groups and ensure that they get better access to government jobs. Although the commission submitted its report, the government never released it, which feared there being a backlash.
For example, in Bihar, Yadavs have unevenly benefited from OBC Kota. If the BJP can rally less powerful OBC groups, it can dent Tejashvi Yadav’s vote base. But in states such as UP, Jharkhand and South India, where Kurmis (a BJP-based OBC group) dominates, any quota redistribution can cause damage to BJP’s current support.
This is the reason that the Rohini Commission report remains under wrapping. But with the data of caste census, the demand for restructuring quota is likely to increase. The government will need to manage these tensions carefully – expanding reservation limits by preserving social harmony.
However, it also risks to separate the base of the traditional upper caste of the BJP. For now, however, the government is not ready to endanger its grip on backward caste votes-especially the Congress and Mandal-eagle parties were monitored by the same turf.
(Edited by Prashant)