Mint Explainer: A Divided Israel and Netanyahu’s Perseverance

What’s Behind Israel’s Political Crisis?

The country has been in the grip of political instability since 2019. In April of that year, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the support of a key conservative ally and was forced to call a general election. However, three consecutive elections in 2019 and 2020 only brought inconclusive results, with no party able to form the government. Although no political party or faction has achieved an absolute majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the major parties form coalitions with smaller players to form the government. In 2021, after the fourth election, Netanyahu was finally removed from office after 12 years in power. An inspiring collection of nationalist conservatives, centrist and Arab parties assembled a 61-seat government. The coalition lasted until June 2022 when differences among other issues over Palestine left the government at the wheel. As a result, Israel’s fifth general election has been held.

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What role has Benjamin Netanyahu played?

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is at the center of Israel’s political instability. Netanyahu is embroiled in a corruption scandal that has dented his credibility with some voters. His opponents also accused him of instigating domestic divisions between Israel and the Palestinians to secure his base. His supporters in Israel’s right-wing parties see him as the only politician capable of defending Israel’s security in an often hostile regional environment. His opponents refuse to work with him while his supporters will not replace him with any other leader. It has shattered Israel’s political system that relied on horse-trading and coalition building to run the country.

Is Netanyahu likely to return?

He has maintained a slight lead in the elections. His faction is expected to win 60 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Netanyahu has received a boost from ultra-Orthodox religious parties, which have seen their voter base grow. The coalition of the incumbent centrist Prime Minister Yair Lapid is expected to get 56 seats. Their alliance is also far weaker and ideologically less aligned than that of their conservative opponents. Arab voters, who could possibly join Lapid’s coalition, are disillusioned and likely to vote in smaller numbers than in previous elections.

What effect will his return have on the region and the world?

Some experts believe that very little will change. Despite Netanyahu’s staunch credentials, he and his successors have made progress in improving relations with Arab neighbors. The Abrahamic Agreement that normalized relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel was signed during Netanyahu’s tenure. Yair Lapid’s government recently concluded a maritime boundary agreement with Lebanon. Netanyahu will likely want to enjoy the peace dividend that comes with a more stable region, especially in times of economic crisis. Others say his harsh policies on Palestine will hurt his access to Arab neighbors. The 2021 clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinian protesters tested new ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

On India, little will change. Netanyahu and his successors were in broad agreement that closer ties with New Delhi were in Israel’s strategic interests.

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