TeaThe latest official GDP estimates show a deceleration in the economy’s expansion in the July-September period, with a year-on-year and sequential contraction in manufacturing and mining, and a broad-based slowdown in private consumption expenditure and government spending. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 6.3% from a year-ago period, a sharp decline from a 13.5% expansion in the first quarter and an 8.4% pace for July-September 2021. On the gross value added (GVA) side, only three of the eight sectors – agriculture; the ubiquitous contact-intensive service sector of trade, hotels, transport and communications; and financial, realty and professional services — posted accelerated year-over-year growth. and five sectors including agriculture; electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services; And manufacturing posted a sequential contraction, reflecting the uncertainty emanating from a combination of the global recession, the war in Ukraine and persistently high domestic inflation. On the expenditure front, growth in both wholesale private consumption expenditure and government expenditure slowed significantly, with the former expanding 9.7% year-on-year compared to first quarter growth of 25.9%, and the latter shrinking by 4.4%. Gone. % after expanding 1.3% in the April-June period. However, sequentially, private consumption indicated some festival-based rebound as it temporarily posted a 1% increase, and a 3.4% q-o-q increase in gross fixed capital formation led by private businesses. pointed to a growing willingness to invest.
Chief Economic Advisor V. Ananth Nageswaran asserted that the recovery of the economy from the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is well underway and the country is set to grow at 6.8% to 7% this fiscal, despite global headwinds. kept on track to achieve. Nevertheless, the challenge posed by data variability and revisions, recently flagged by a top RBI policymaker, is an important element that cannot be ignored and is best underlined by the fact that the latest GDP estimates The entry of ‘discrepancies’ in the NIL has affected nine-quarters. High 2.9%. Moreover, the official core sector data for October, showing combined output in eight core industries including cement, coal, fertilisers, electricity and refinery products, is struggling to grow in its own way. Policymakers cannot afford to let down their guard as they struggle to rein in growth-slowing inflation and must ensure debt conditions remain supportive of the real economy.