Bypoll results are lessons for centralized politics of BJP and Congress
NS Results of by-elections to three Lok Sabha seats and 29 assembly seats 13 states and one union territory Mixed bag for BJP and Congress. The ruling party in West Bengal, TMC, got a resounding support with a landslide victory in four assembly seats, while TRS, despite using all the levers of power in Telangana, suffered defeat in the lone assembly seat. The BJP suffered a severe defeat in Himachal Pradesh, where it governs, as it lost one Lok Sabha seat and three assembly seats to the Congress; But it made gains in Madhya Pradesh, where it overtook the Congress in two assembly seats, retaining one Lok Sabha seat and one assembly seat. In Assam, it won all five assembly seats with a regional ally, displacing the Congress in one. The victory in the Huzurabad assembly constituency in Telangana could be the most encouraging for the BJP, as it defeated the ruling TRS, which left no stone unturned to retain the seat. The defeat of the Congress in the seat was so decisive that the results may point to a definite turning point in the politics of the state. In Karnataka, the BJP has suffered a setback in the home district of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai.
Reading too much into by-election results is fraught with risk, but some broad points are worth mentioning. Taken together, the results show the opposition is alive and kicking, but still devoid of a national narrative, program or leadership. This set of bypolls may not indicate any consequential change in the national mood – HP, which lost to the BJP, has only four Lok Sabha seats, while in Bihar, the BJP’s ally, the JD(U), won both. Assembly seats have been retained. The polls show that leadership matters at the state level, and this could be bad news for the BJP, which has increasingly centralized power and sought to undermine strong regional leaders. In Karnataka, the removal of BS Yediyurappa as chief minister appears to have come with a price; In Assam and other northeastern states, Himanta Biswa Sarma’s mark is unmistakable in the BJP’s impressive performance; The credit for the party’s victory in Madhya Pradesh goes to Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan; And the extent of his defeat in Rajasthan can be attributed to the lack of regional leadership. The TMC’s massive performance in West Bengal and the BJP’s similar debacle prove the former’s complete hold on the state, and the latter’s struggle to grasp it. The party was clamped down in the assembly elections held earlier this year and its agenda and vision are far from the thinking of Bengalis. As far as Congress is concerned, what matters more than defeat in MP and Telangana, not victory in HP and Rajasthan.
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