TeaThe biggest winner of the latest election cycle is Gujarat Congress MLA Jignesh Mevani. Now, if this triggers a dismissive response on your part, try and hold on for a second. I invoke Mevani in the hope of outlining emerging changes in Indian politics, and it is because the greatest loss remains of Indian political analysis.
As the world’s most high-octane democracy, every election is frustratingly treated with the same cookie-cutter analysis. Excited data crunchers dominate as they bombard you with colour-coded charts and graphs with mainly two points of discussion: the vote share of parties and the nature of the swing vote, caste or about ‘power’ Usually ends with a ‘lesson’ with some noise. For statements of parties and predictions on the next election. The only constant in the current analysis is the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even if you are a staunch supporter of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Modi, this is not satisfactory.
The BJP’s big win in its bastion of prestige in Gujarat and the solid, if hard-won Congress victory in Himachal Pradesh indicate that both personality and populism have reached a saturation point. To put it in street-speak, both devotion (devotion) and revdl (free gift) doesn’t cost much but seems to be more than needed. The Aam Aadmi Party’s less-than-impressive results compared to its big talk and big media love-in have confirmed its character as a spoiler rather than a contender.
Read also:
personality MAttar
The new, if unnoticed, story is likely to emerge of a different social map of political leadership, albeit a matter of difficult identity. Look no further than Mevani in Himachal Pradesh and indeed Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu of the Congress. You don’t need to be in a cadre-based party to breach zealously guarded bastions of power.
To be sure, Modi continues to wield all the power associated with his persona and as a distinctive form of leadership of our times. His carefully crafted roadshow in Gujarat ensured more than a massive mandate for his party. Be it the Lok Sabha elections or his home state, Modi manages to allay any concerns with governance and accountability. Despite the recent preventable deaths due to the Morbi bridge collapse, or even the longer-lasting and brutal consequences of the global COVID-19 pandemic, Modi remains popular. Policy-making and the conduct of a good government now seem too drab and too commonplace for his personality. In my opinion, Modi is not Indira Gandhi. This is the new Amitabh Bachchan.
Modi has transformed himself into a superhero figure today. He switches between a politician-like persona with street appeal to make himself appear bigger than the electoral process, the party and even the government. Little wonder he dresses for the occasion. After all, wherever Modi’s car goes, rose petals are showered on him. This is pure spectacle. In strictly political terms, this should worry his party because holograms notwithstanding, Modi cannot be everywhere. And this has already become clear from the election results of Himachal Pradesh.
Many analysts and academics have eloquently and rightly decried that Indian democracy is now reduced to mere election campaigning. There is much that is wrong and even worrying about Indian democracy today. I won’t list it now, but unlike many analysts, I take elections as a major criterion, not just a process of democracy. And if elections are the main and only game in town, gamers may simply be adapting if they’re not changing.
Read also: The opposition has succumbed, but a crisis is brewing within the BJP
new stars?
Modi’s script for a humble makeover tea seller No longer unique to a powerhouse. Others are charting the same script, even if the scale and success seem smaller by comparison. Mevani’s spirited and crowd-funded campaign in Vadgam was easily the toughest battle in Gujarat, which bodes well for India’s competitive democracy. His backstory of relentless fighting from below lends dignity to democracy. Student leader, activist, journalist and now for a second term, Mevani fought money, muscle power and whims for principles that count in politics. It speaks quietly, of course, to the power of politics as change.
Mevani may be an outsider because he has bucked a major trend in Indian politics. As recent academic writing suggests, political leadership in India is becoming increasingly exclusive, even as more socially diverse groups engage in the electoral process. In short, personality power combined with a lack of diversity is making Indian democracy less representative, even though voter participation remains strong. With his humble background as the son of a bus driver, Sukhu has won over even the political elite in Himachal Pradesh. Even if they are outliers, they have become precedents because both emerged in a highly expensive electoral system that is highly competitive and completely prohibitive in every respect.
Mevani’s victory also indicates that there is a perceptible degeneration in the social basis of India’s party politics. His victory comes at a crucial juncture as Dalit power has lost its main party of representation to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). With Mevani, India’s Dalit politics finally has a charismatic young leader who can fight and win big. At the same time, BJP has got unprecedented support in the tribal constituencies of Gujarat. The Congress has won a landslide victory in a northern state and it can no longer be dismissed by the media. Despite its new official status as a ‘national party’, the AAP has been elusive about its Delhi-based orientation. The changing social and regional basis of party politics deserves its own column. And I haven’t even picked up ideology! But if the personality is king, it can no longer remain the sole sovereign.
Modi may or may not have modeled himself on Indira Gandhi. The response to his towering personality was the rise of multi-party democracy in India, and the response to Amitabh Bachchan’s superstardom was the opening of multi-star blockbusters. If elections are the new mass entertainment, the latest polls clearly show it picture nowOneKey’s!
Shruti Kapila is Professor of Indian History and Global Political Thought at the University of Cambridge. She tweets @shrutikapila. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)