Senior doctors at major COVID facilities, both state-run and private, have emphasized that the peak in death cases usually occurs after a week or two when the daily cases peak.
Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain on Thursday said that the peak of the third Covid wave in the national capital seems to have passed, even as he cautioned that the city was still not out of the danger zone.
Delhi recently saw a record increase in daily cases with over 28,000 cases reported in a single day on January 13, and the positivity rate too had crossed 30 per cent on January 14.
The number of daily cases has come down in the last few days and the city recorded 12,306 cases on Thursday. 43 deaths were also recorded that day, the highest since June 10.
Experts on Friday said that this is a general epidemiological trend and the number of deaths in daily cases is observed 7-14 days after the peak as the condition of patients after testing positive worsens later.
“This wave is seeing far fewer hospitalizations than the previous one,” said a senior doctor at the Delhi government-run Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences (ILBS).
The doctor said, “But any patient who is admitted after testing positive, usually dies in the next one or two weeks after his condition worsens, and hence, the number of deaths is later than the number of cases.” will be at its peak.”
In this wave, largely led by the Omicron version of the coronavirus, almost the entire family is contracting the infection, even if one family member is getting infected, the doctor said.
Because of this, everyone is isolating quickly, so the recovery is also happening simultaneously and hence, “the rapid rise will be followed by a rapid decline in cases”, said the senior doctor.
According to official figures, about 400 people have died in the month of January so far.
Eight of these deaths were recorded on January 5, when the city witnessed a surge in Covid cases amid growing fear of Omicron variants. Since then there has been an increasing trend in the death toll.
The health bulletin issued on Thursday said that the death toll due to Covid in Delhi is 25,503. The death toll stood at 25,107 on December 31.
The number of daily cases on Thursday stood at 12,306 at a positivity rate of 21.48 per cent, the bulletin said.
Dr Suranjit Chatterjee, Senior Consultant, Apollo Hospitals here said it was too early to say whether the peak of death had been crossed. He said that “after that record jump a week ago, which is being seen as the peak, the cases have come down. Even the number of calls I get from patients for medical consultation in the last few days It has also come down significantly, indicating that the situation is improving.”
“However, more deaths are happening now, as the death toll peaks after a week or two,” Chatterjee said.
However, he argued that as per the new guidelines, the number of tests has been reduced, and though the number of cases is decreasing, the trend needs to be observed.
“We need to look at the daily fatality trend, and see how the figures go, then only an assessment can be made whether the death toll has peaked or we have crossed it,” Chatterjee said.
He also said that the government should share details about the third wave deaths in Delhi, whether these were due to omicrons or some other kind, otherwise, “we doctors too will be in the dark when it comes to the pandemic.” devising strategies to deal with”.
The national capital had recorded 28,867 COVID-19 cases on January 13, which is the sharpest one-day spike here since the start of the pandemic with a positivity rate of 29.21 per cent. The city had recorded 31 deaths that day.
Dr Richa Sarin, consultant pulmonology at Fortis Hospital here, echoed Chatterjee and said, the number of death cases will have to be assessed in the next few days before any conclusion can be drawn whether it is peaking or not.
“I was comparing January 2022 figures with May 2021 figures and the situation is almost the same in terms of number of cases and positivity rate, but the number of deaths is much less,” she said.
Over 28,000 cases and 277 deaths were recorded on April 20 last year, which rose to 306 on April 22. According to official figures, a record 448 deaths were recorded in the city on May 3.
Sarin said, the number of hospitalizations this year is negligible, while the number of patients going to the ICU is even less compared to the horrific situation during the second terrible wave of the epidemic last year.
“Several factors can be attributed to this, one is that the Omicron variant is substantially lighter than the Delta we saw last year. Second, people are vaccinated, so there is some level of protection.” “Especially those who get both shots, and those who have been infected in the past, also have some inherent immunity,” the doctor said.
The cumulative number of cases in Delhi on Thursday stood at 17,60,272. According to official figures, over 16.66 lakh patients have recovered from the infection.
This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed. Only the title has been changed.
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