The inclusion of Kanhaiya Kumar, and the departure of Sushmita Dev, Jitin Prasada and Jyotiraditya Scindia, presents an interesting context to question the relevance of the Indian National Congress in politics today. Jignesh Mevani also spoke strongly in support of Congress, but has not yet formally joined the party. Some have celebrated the decision as an attempt to reinvent the party. It is too early to guess what these two young faces might bring to the party, or vice versa. There is every possibility that Mr. Kumar can do to the Bihar Congress what senior leaders like Pranab Mukherjee and P. Chidambaram respectively did to the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Congress, which is nothing but self-promotion.
Any attempt to examine the future of the Congress or its relevance must begin with a caveat – the current party, led by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, is not the same as that once led by Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru. Former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi converted it into a dynastic party. It is a family firm, although the family has at times been generous enough to allow non-family members to head its government. But the ideology of the party or its internal democracy is at the mercy of the whims and wants of the family.
The notion that the present party is the legitimate heir to the party that brought India’s independence has been a potential source of many grand delusions. Once this fact is recognised, all the confusion that the present Congress will be able to restore India’s secular politics can be easily dispelled. However, this does not mean that the party cannot play a significant role in stopping the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
At this juncture, the Congress continues to take advantage of being an alternative alliance to the BJP. It is the only national party with a legitimate regional character, represented by its social bases in some of the major states. Almost all regional parties are a state-based party. What has created another void in the national pool of political leadership is that so-called regional leaders have limited ambitions. He only aspires to be the Chief Minister. Consider Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav, a politician who barely understands the value of being a former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. Had he used the opportunities presented by the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act protests or the farmers’ movement, he would have been a contender for the Prime Minister’s post. Given the stalled growth of regional parties, the Congress is unmatched in leading an alternative coalition.
What is the potential for such a role in the 2024 parliamentary election? One answer is that it is too early to call. There is strong evidence of the unpopularity of the Narendra Modi-led government. However, Mr Modi, along with Home Minister Amit Shah and the BJP, has changed the ground rules of India’s electoral politics – that mere defeat in an election does not close the possibility of BJP government formation. This has happened in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere. This rule is also valid for New Delhi. Therefore, any attempt to prevent Mr. Modi from becoming Prime Minister for a third term means that the margin of defeat for the BJP should be significant in terms of seats.
But it is possible to predict defeat and bring the country back into coalition mode, which can shake the momentum of Hindutva even if the BJP government comes back. To achieve this, the Congress will have to make the election candidate-centric and win between 80 and 100 seats in 2024. The party will have to select capable candidates at the earliest and have a big heart in giving concessions to the alliance partners.
It takes a small window to puncture a Hindutva balloon. But no one knows how BJP is going to use the Ram temple being built in Ayodhya in its campaign. It is expected to be spectacular, which can neutralize the issues undermining BJP’s rule today, especially in North India.
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman teaches at Jamia Millia Central University, New Delhi. He is the author of the upcoming book, Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims
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