Opportunity to tap India’s high equity in Myanmar

The brief visit by India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla to Myanmar (December 22-23) had a clearly spelled out mandate: deepening cooperation with an important neighbour. His mission was largely successful, but challenges remain.

The Indian delegation took a special flight to Naipitaw and Yangon. It certainly eased logistics for the authorities, but it was fully utilized as it also gifted one million India-made vaccine doses to the people of Myanmar.

regional dimension

Mr Shringla followed India’s calibrated mid-way position. It is not the reactionary policy of the West of censure, threats and sanctions against military rule, but a position reflecting regional realities. This is no easy task.

Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, the international community has been divided on how to address the problem of derailing Myanmar’s transition to democracy. For a decade, the country’s ‘hybrid democracy’, based on the sharing of power between the military and elected representatives, did well. But the massive election victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in November 2020 left the military leadership uneasy. It was feared that armed with a new mandate, the NLD would move quickly to cut the wings of the army. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s army) advanced rapidly, seized power in contravention of the constitution and brought down the opposition with an iron hand. The consequences have been disastrous for democracy, the economy and the well-being of the people, especially the political crisis as COVID-19 ravaged the ‘Golden Land’.

Global dismay at Western sanctions was evident, but others, such as Russia, saw an opportunity to strengthen ties with the new rulers. China regretted the loss of Suu Kyi as a valuable ally, but took immediate steps to stabilize and expand cooperation with the military regime. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) first showed creativity through its ‘five-point consensus’ formula, but later Myanmar’s top leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (Picture) refused to cooperate in the implementation of the formula.

In this highly polarized and complex situation, Mr Shringla managed to hold important discussions with the top leadership of the State Administrative Council (SAC) and political parties including the NLD in Naipitaw, as well as with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and civil society representatives Is. Yangon. India’s position, as reported to Myanmar, is similar and pro-ASEAN: the release of political prisoners; Resolving issues through dialogue; the end of “all violence”; and full cooperation with ASEAN. In recent years, India has helped Myanmar through capacity building programs to strengthen the transition to democracy. This assistance remains available, but it is not an offer of mediation by India in the military-NLD conflict. ASEAN will have to bear this burden.

That confidence in India’s position is reflected in Mr Shringla’s unusual interactive meeting with a select group of foreign ambassadors based in Myanmar.

bilateral concern

Myanmar’s military is retaliating. India’s key concerns relating to border security and stability in its neighbourhood, were clearly conveyed, especially with the significant increase in the activities of anti-India insurgent groups. The military government demonstrated its willingness to cooperate by handing over five cadres of the Manipur People’s Liberation Army to Indian officers ahead of the Shringla Yatra. It also renewed the previous pledge that the territory of his country would not be allowed to be used for any activity for India.

The second issue – the result of Myanmar’s instability – is that of refugees. Thousands of people from Myanmar have sought asylum in Mizoram. This would only be reversed by a political settlement through talks in Myanmar. The issue was also taken seriously, despite the subsequent understandable repetition of known positions in formal discussions of the regime last week.

Economic cooperation has always been a major agenda item in all bilateral discussions with Myanmar. The visit was no exception, with a general emphasis on “people-centred socio-economic development projects”. At its heart is India’s long-delayed commitment to “rapid implementation” of mega initiatives such as the Trilateral Highway and Kaladan projects. Unfortunately, no revised deadline was announced. These projects remain the Achilles heel of the relationship.

protocol departure

Nevertheless, India continues to have high equity in Myanmar, which it should now take cautiously of. This is reflected in the special gesture made by Senior General Min Aung Huling (who is the Chairman and Prime Minister of SAC) to receive Mr Shringla and hold detailed discussions in Yangon. that’s unusual. Myanmar’s establishment is highly protocol-conscious. My shift as ambassador to Yangon saw three visits by the Indian Foreign Secretary (ie, two different office-holders), but was not received by the highest dignitaries of the regime. Protocol departure for Mr Shringla exposed current political realities that should be carefully taken into account by those who wrongly argue that China is Myanmar’s only friend.

Further, although the Indian Foreign Secretary’s request for a meeting with Dau Suu Kyi was not acceded to, as expected, it should be underlined that New Delhi had made the request. There are other ways to pursue this matter as India has done in the past. A sober approach resulted in this writer making a rare call to Daw Suu Kyi in January 2003, when she was still under house arrest. Projecting the request this time may still produce results.

back home, steps to take

It seems that both the Myanmar government and the opposition understand India’s calm attitude. India can reap the benefits of this visit and keep the momentum going by inviting the Myanmar Foreign Minister as well as other important stakeholders like leaders of political parties, civil society and think tanks for discussions with their counterparts here. Is. The sole goal should be to put Myanmar back on the path to becoming “a stable, democratic and federal federation”.

Rajeev Bhatia is a Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House and former Ambassador to Myanmar