If we talk about the economy of Pakistan, then the news about Pakistan is serious. or politics. The attack on its former Prime Minister Imran Khan on Thursday was clearly shameful. News about foreign relations, however, can be puzzling. Take Islamabad’s new agreement with Beijing for a $10 billion high-speed railway project, which was firmed up after current Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif met Chinese President Xi Jinping. While the details of this ‘strategic’ deal are shrouded in secrecy, what is visible is another embracing of the Karakoram range in a maze of motives going beyond the Beltway to trade profit. What Pakistan can see as a redeemable chip, China’s quick access to a port in the Arabian Sea, China can see as a future asset for power projection. After all, Beijing’s belt-and-road game has a tendency to turn loans given out under the guise of aid into hard assets of military value. The puzzle is Pakistan’s economy-versus-autonomy calculation. The world of real politics is not so much for its Faustian touch, but for how it has veered this way or that in recent times.
Like bowling in cricket, cloudy skies have also played a part. During the Cold War, and for several heated wars thereafter, Pakistan was a ‘frontline’ ally of the US, even as it maintained “all-weather” ties with China and sought to strengthen Indo-US ties. The latter came closer to Russia. Armed by the US, the Pakistan Army based in Rawalpindi had a major role in all this. But then a swing factor came into play, which can be traced back to the 1992 World Cup victory as the captain of Imran Khan’s cricket team. Not only was he a well-known exponent of ‘reverse swing’ as a bowler, his popularity helped him become the country’s top elected leader a few years after joining politics. Under Khan, Islamabad turned away from the west, first through rhetoric and then in ways that might concern Rawalpindi. To what extent it went east was unclear, as the country had long been at odds with China, but the world saw Khan in Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Earlier this year in February, Khan lost the confidence of his National Assembly (and with it his power) just days after Moscow and Beijing declared a “no borders” relationship, and shortly before. Khan was rallying supporters and creating a ruckus against the army’s role in politics when he was shot. Whatever their agitation or not, Pakistan is clearly back on the US side under PM Sharif, as indicated by its recent weapons upgrades and relief on terror finance.
The path we saw Pakistan on resembled a peculiar reverse-swing delivery: west to east, and then, as a surprise, west again. As masters of this technique can testify, it only works if one side of the ball is rough while the other is shiny, and can still fail because it needs to meet many other air conditions. For example, a cloudy sky is found to increase its success rate. All season, it’s definitely not. Just like with the cricket pitch, so with the field of geopolitics. Whether Pakistan’s turn was by strategy or accident, or determined by a power struggle between its military and politicians, as Khan’s admirers say, those in charge of the country should understand that neutrality should serve its interests. Best service will be given. Like India, it should also do the work of autonomy for its economy. it has to be done. And, regardless of his tumultuous relationship with New Delhi, he should not play the Chinese game.
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