With the political crisis deepening in the state of Maharashtra, Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray has no option but to save his government after losing over 35 MLAs in the last 24 hours.
Maharashtra’s urban development minister and Thackeray loyalist, Eknath Shinde, is leading the rebel group and is staying at a hotel in Surat in BJP-ruled Gujarat. Though reports suggest that Jalgaon BJP MLA Sanjay Kute was seen entering the hotel, Thackeray’s confidante Milind Narvekar and Ravindra Phatak who was sent to pacify Eknath Shinde were not allowed to meet him.
So what happens next? Will Uddhav Thackeray be able to save his government with NCP chief Sharad Pawar?
There are three vacancies in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly due to the death of Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke and the arrests of Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik. This takes the number of the assembly to 285 and the majority mark hangs at 143. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (combining MVA-Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress) government currently has 55 Shiv Sena MLAs, 53 NCP MLAs and 44 Congress MLAs. A total of 152 MLAs are being made. There are 13 independents in the house. One of them – Rajendra Patil Yedravakar – is a minister in the MVA government from Shiv Sena quota. Similarly, Krantikari Shetkari Paksha MLA Shankarrao Gadakh from Nevasa and Bacchu Kadu of Prahar Janshakti Party are also ministers from Shiv Sena quota. With the support of 3 independent MLAs, this number is 158.
Meanwhile, the BJP, which won 105 seats in 2019, had increased its tally to 106.
But after the recent rebellion, the Shiv Sena is on the verge of losing the support of 21 MLAs and an independent MLA, who went ‘incommunicado’ yesterday and is now hiding in a Surat hotel. Which takes the strength of the army to 34 and the total number of Maha Vikas Aghadi to 131.
However, under the anti-defection law, the new majority of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly is 133. And the BJP now claims the support of 135 MLAs, much more than the majority. But if Shiv Sena MLAs try to change power, they will have to win a by-election to re-enter the house.
To avoid disqualification under the law, Shinde needs the support of 36 MLAs, or two-thirds of the strength of the House. It is not clear whether Shinde has the support of 36 MLAs.
Thereafter, 29 independents and legislators from minor parties will be left to play the role of kingmakers.
Despite the numbers, the BJP has not called for a no-confidence motion so far. “It is too early to say anything, we are waiting and monitoring the situation for the time being. Neither Eknath Shinde has sent a proposal to form the government to the BJP nor has the BJP sent any proposal to him.