(This is the latest edition of Political Line newsletter by Varghese K. George. Political Line newsletter explains the political scenario of India every week. You can subscribe here To get the newsletter in your inbox.)
Political parties across India are rearranging old equations. The more polarized the 2024 battleground becomes, the more it becomes clear that those who are not with the Congress are effectively with the BJP.
Between the two alliances that showed their strength last week, 64 parties could be counted – 38 at a meeting of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which backed Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third term in 2024, and 26 at a gathering that vowed to work jointly to defeat him. The opposition parties have named their alliance the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) – the name itself says a lot about the new formation. our editorial told Its collective determination and confusion, both at the same time. The name also suggests that the opposition parties realize that they will have to take on the BJP in the framework of a nationalist contest. This is the only option; And that is the best option.
There were 38 parties in the NDA assembly, many of which had very little voter base., Presumably, the BJP and Mr. Modi believe that if the election is closely fought, every vote will matter, but other than that there appears to be an attempt to prove that neither the party nor the Prime Minister is isolated, or politically untouchable. mentioned in our editorial,
We cannot yet say that the battle lines for 2024 are clearly drawn. They are being pulled, and more recon is expected in the coming days. But there are some indicators this week that underscore some long-term trends, or clear signs of parties reworking their priorities.
Both the NDA and India have their eyes set on the subaltern votes – OBCs and Dalits. Indian parties have called for caste census, The BJP managed to get Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party chief Om Prakash Rajbhar in its fold.From whom the party is expected to get a boost in Uttar Pradesh. His tumultuous parting with the BJP ahead of the 2022 assembly elections in UP and now gradually embracing it shows the paradox of subaltern politics. These leaders and parties are really not comfortable in the saffron tent, and might want to break free from it, but they are unable to do so. OBC and Dalit leaders, who carved out an autonomous space by forging a broad coalition of lower-class social groups, now stand sidelined by their actions and the appeal of Hindutva among their voter base. Nitish Kumar in Bihar is another example – he managed to remain chief minister for almost two decades, alternately aligning with and opposing the BJP, but moving on hasn’t been very easy. His ambition to emerge as the face of the opposition campaign in 2024 hasn’t really panned out, and he is troubled by this, although he denies it publicly,
So, there is clearly a subaltern vote, but no subaltern leader or party. BJP has managed to capture that space and OBC/Dalit voters. Today, no OBC leader is seen whose mass base is not limited to just one caste or state. This opens up an opportunity for the Congress – only if it has the courage and imagination to seize the opportunity to become more downtrodden in representation and rhetoric.
Many political equations within parties and states have gone awry. Until it settles into a new equilibrium, confusion will continue. In West Bengal, the Congress and CPI(M) units will have to deal with Trinamool Congress chief and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s newfound friendship with the Congress national leadership. in Delhi and Punjab Congress and AAP have reduced their rivalry, BJP and JD(S) are coming closer in Karnataka. are confusing the workers of both the parties, In Bihar, the BJP managed to win over LJP’s Chirag Paswan faction, but his uncle Pashupati Nath Paras is in no mood to leave Hajipur Lok Sabha seat To make it simple and practical.
Nowhere is this more evident than in Telangana, where the BJP has for all practical purposes given up its fight against the ruling BRS. on a party strategy meetingThe workers wanted to know whether the BJP was interested in fighting the BRS or not. Those watching the evolving situation in Telangana are baffled by the BJP-BRS dynamics, though the two continue to count each other as political enemies. BRS leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao is trying to expand his party in Maharashtra, where his campaign could cut into support for the Congress-Shiv Sena (UBT)-NCP (Sharad Pawar) alliance. The BJP is leaving no stone unturned to make some gains in Maharashtra, where it feels confined and restricted despite holding power.
Between the two alliances, BSP leader Mayawati and AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi are swinging in No Man’s Land. in Andhra Pradesh BJP balancing itself between ruling YSRCP and opposition TDP, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and his Andhra Pradesh counterpart YS Jagan Mohan Reddy are the other two regional leaders claiming to maintain equidistance from both the fronts. The Congress’s share in both these states is low, and in the event of a hung parliament, these parties can do business with anyone at the Centre. At the moment, those who claim to maintain equidistance from the BJP and the Congress are actually helping the former. That’s the big picture.
Federalism Path – Notes on Indian Diversity
The naked reality of Manipur
A viral video showing two tribal women being paraded naked and molested by a mob has exposed sexual violence against women in Manipur and finally forced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to break his silence on caste conflicts in the state. But has he? not enough, our editorial notes,
tamil borders
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin appealed to the PM Raise issues related to Tamils With visiting Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Mr. Modi, who has his own plans to woo Tamil voters, did it,
language lessons
The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) has written to all its affiliated schools asking them to may consider using Indian languages as alternative medium Instructions in addition to other existing options.
The Supreme Court said this Cannot direct Center to include Rajasthani as official language in the Eighth Schedule to the Constitution.
Has the question of delimitation been resolved?
Delimitation is the process of redrawing the boundaries of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies on the basis of the most recent census to ensure that each seat has approximately the same number of electors. The last nationwide delimitation exercise took place in 1976. While the current boundaries were drawn on the basis of the 2001 census, the number of Lok Sabha and assembly seats in individual states remained constant on the basis of the 1971 census. In 2002, the constitution was amended to prohibit the practice until the first census to be conducted after the year 2026. Should delimitation be delayed further? I discuss this question with two experts – former CEC OP Rawat and demographer Uday Shankar Mishra. You can listen to the discussion or read the transcript Here,