Back to the White House, President Donald Trump says he would end the war in Ukraine – although not in a day, as he promised. But there is a problem: Vladimir Putin is no hurry to give concessions and accept a deal that is not on its terms. With the third anniversary of his invasion, the Russian President believes that this is the time on him and both Ukraine and its western backers have their advantage.
It is true that Mr. Putin’s approach during a quarter of a century in power is to project confidence of confidence, regardless of the purpose of reality. This makes their brain difficult to read, especially as the nature of decision making inside the Kremlin has become more opaque. Nevertheless, the news brought from the battlefield to him should promote a sense of optimism. On the front, Russia’s speed is, the collective forces around the strategic city of Pokarovsk while Ukrainian lines have started detained. Ukraine is extremely uncertain about Mr. Trump’s future political and physical support – and Europe and. Even if there is political will, the rescue-industrial basis of the West will struggle to feed Ukraine with weapons at the levels so far. Meanwhile, at home, the political authority of President Volodmi Zelanski looks critical. His government is starting searching for some kind of time-out in the fight.
In contrast, the Russian army still shows very little signal to get out of aggressive steam. True, whatever additional land Russia has seized in eastern Ukraine in the last one year has come to the cost of heavy casualties. The current burn rate of manpower cannot continue forever. But in a short time, Russia is re -filling the stores from the pool of the store. Conversely, the lesspulsion Ukraine is struggling to recruit new soldiers.
Kremlin has lured Russian men with grand payments in the army. Even this stream of recruitments should dry up, other options, such as a new electronic system to issue draft summons. (Meanwhile, an estimated 12,000 North Korean elite soldiers came out of Russia’s Kursk region to assist Russia to defeat Ukrainian forces.) Kremlin tolerated the massive damage for so long, until Ukraine struggled more than Russia, which does to change their own casualties on the front. According to Russian census, Ukraine slowly and then suddenly lost this piece war of war.
Then there is an economic limit. It is true that the cumulative weight of Western sanctions has forced Shri Putin’s war -time economy. But the technocrats of Russia have effectively managed the results of impressive economy, high inflation, labor lack and declining exports. At some point, these handle will become more difficult. But at least next year or more, Mr. Putin may probably rely on resources to pay for war, before the economy goes into real troubles. And given the fear that Mr. Putin is in the Russian society and among the aristocratic class, he is not worried about the popular demands to eliminate war or plots.
Mr. Putin can also be confident about the international picture – about Mr. Trump, a fresh ban on Russia and their threats to count an American drilling mania, which damages the revenue of Russian oil, will not disturb the Kremlin. If they kill Russia at all, such measures will take time.
Kremlin means that time is in its side, it is important to understand its broad ideas. The Russian leadership will not feel any real pressure to come to the conversation table unless it is in effect to accept Ukraine’s surrender. Mr. Putin is already shaping the diplomatic region, indicating that he is a proper person, while blames on all, but has brought himself himself to insensitive catastrophe about this war. Mr. Putin is flattering Mr. Trump by echoing the US President’s line that Russia would never have invaded Ukraine. Mr. Trump was not excluded from the post of theft. He suggests that he is ready to interact with Mr. Trump, but not stating with Mr. Zelancesi or Europe.
The demands of Mr. Putin include the recognition of Russia’s annexation in the Ukrainian region and the protection of the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine (so that Russia calls Russia to Russia in Ukrainian politics). He wants the end of Western sanctions. Above all, he wants the end of the Western Security Guarantee and an assurance that NATO will never be Ukraine as a member (a possibility Mr. Trump himself has poured cold water). European peace soldiers in Ukraine will be unacceptable even after a conversation after a conversation. At least, their appearance with the line of contact will complicate the Russia’s option, one day, to reinstate – Mr. Putin should choose.
If Mr. Trump agreed to meet the main demands of Russia, the Kremlin may agree to a ceasefire and the cold of the current front line; It can also respect the deal until Sri Trump lives in the office. This will enable the US President to claim his credibility as a merchant and peace -bearer.
There is no doubt in the Russians that a Ukraine with no Western security guarantee called a uninterrupted, a uninterrupted, slipped, which is at risk of implications. Ukrainians, of course, will be influenced by such a deal, which they will oppose to drop their throat down. Still, if Mr. Putin does not find his way in the conversation, he seems confident that Russia can fight for at least another year and he wants through the battlefield. Ukraine, he calculates, is a lack of time or resources indefinitely. It is possible to prove Mr. Putin wrong, but it will take more Ukrainian blood and western weapons – and, perhaps more significantly than anything, seems to allow more time than impatient for a deal of Shri Trump.
Alexander Gabuva is the head of the Russian Eurasia Center at Gabuva Berlin.