Putin’s visit is a defining moment for India-Russia relations. This is a message to China

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RUS President Vladimir Putin meeting Today is a defining moment in India-Russia for New Delhi Relation, Much is being talked about the symbolism of the visit – this is only the second time Putin has stepped out of his country since Covid-19 spread to the world in March 2020, and the second time the President of the United States in Geneva To meet Joe Biden. In summer this year.

Make no mistake, this meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi will set the course for bilateral relations in the years to come.

There are three reasons why this tour is so important. The first is that Putin agrees that his own foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar is not able to install some chemicals and he has let it happen recent differences Clouds over the strength of a relationship that is more than 50 years old.

have a case Difference Between the two countries in the details of the Indian Ocean. Is it “Indo-Pacific”, as India and the US describe it, or is it “Asia-Pacific”, as Russia and China call it? In last week’s Russia-India-China trilateral meetingJaishankar and Lavrov, naturally, differed again on this detail.

At the highest levels of Indian and Russian establishments, however, the thinking is that it does not matter what this body of water is called. More important is what you do with it. And this is the second reason for the visit of the Russian President to Delhi. Conversations with several Russian analysts show that Putin believes that it is very important to allow India to slip into the extended US embrace which is Revealed In Quad – Informal alliance between Australia, Japan, USA and India.

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Read also: Modi may benefit from Putin’s visit to Delhi. All he has to do is deepen the Russia-China gap.

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quad effect

Now, remember that both Australia and Japan have independent security alliances with the US. India has always been hesitant to be a part of any military group. Even on the Quad, India has clarified time and again that in its view the Quad is No A military alliance, that it will pursue only “non-military determinants”, such as fighting the COVID pandemic by helping deliver vaccines, etc.

There is no denying that the real purpose of the Quad is to shadow China. The world’s four largest democracies are coming together to send a message to the rest of the world that they will stand up for their democratic rights, freedom of speech and expression, the rule of law and a market economy.

In fact, Putin’s visit to India is actually to meet PM Modi. Indian diplomats who have served in Russia point to the extraordinary personal warmth of Putin and Modi share When Putin took them in a private boat during the PM’s visit to Sochi in 2018 and as they boarded, little Russian children waited to applaud an Indian prime minister.

The aforementioned Russian analysts, who spoke off-the-record, pointed out that Putin himself would like to assess where India’s foreign policy is headed. Exactly, what is the value of the quad to India? Should Russia continue Sell The highly sophisticated S-400 missile system – which India has ordered and at least partially paid for, with first deliveries expected by the end of the year – if New Delhi wants to be part of a lucrative US circle?

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Read also: 3 real political lessons India learned since the signing of the Indo-Soviet pact 50 years ago

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Rajnath Singh’s visit to Russia

There is certainly no such inherent Russian threat. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Remember the time when Defense Minister Rajnath Singh Visited Moscow in May 2020, in the midst of the COVID pandemic, to attend the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II – which the Russians believe they helped bring to an end because it was the Red Army that ultimately led Berlin Freed. Singh gave the Russians a list of 10 pieces of military equipment that India needed to fight Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops against Indian troops at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.

The Russians gave This in itself was a sign to India that despite Moscow’s closeness and warmth to Beijing, its relations with India were too important to be let alone.

According to several Indian observers, who also spoke off-the-record, the prime minister understands the situation between Moscow and Beijing. Also, Modi is not going to give up his Russian trump card just because India and the US are meeting like houses of fire these days.

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Read also: India, Russia are less useful to each other now. disagreement will only increase

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Modi’s flexible foreign policy

The fact that India’s foreign policy has become really flexible is quite fascinating to watch. First, Modi and Putin are likely to hug and talk, and generally reassure each other that they still mean a lot to the other country. Second, Modi is participating in Virtual Democracy within days of Putin’s return home. Summit Joe Biden, to which neither Putin nor Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited, but Pakistan’s Imran Khan was invited.

Modi understands that being “non-aligned” is not such a bad thing. The end of the Cold War actually gives him room to partner with multiple opposing players at the same time.

The third important reason for Putin’s visit is that it signals none other than Xi Jinping. As a former communist cutting his teeth at the Soviet intelligence agency – the KGB – Putin understands well how his current communist comrades think about the world. Putin will never forget that the Chinese learned from the dissolution of the Soviet Union – that no matter how strong a military power you are, a weak economy will let you down – and that China’s big leap in power is because it has become the store of the world -Keeper, even it strengthened the power of the Communist Party from within.

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Read also: India and US should know the new Cold War is a different animal – China is not the USSR

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Putin’s message

For Putin, visiting India at a time when Indian and Chinese troops are facing each other on the LAC certainly has a message for Xi Jinping.

Putin knows of the Chinese imagination as a power that will soon overtake the US, that Beijing respects only power and that it positions Russia far below the scale at which the US Lies – a “junior partner”. And so is the underlying message of the Russian leader’s visit to Beijing: “Not so fast, comrades.”

Don’t forget that Putin has chosen to only meet with Joe Biden, an opponent of the Cold War, over Xi Jinping and other European leaders, despite the fact that Russia is such a Euro-centric nation. Putin understands that Russia’s existence is tied to the various powers with which it can be allies for a variety of reasons.

Exactly this is the view of Modi as well. The PM has ordered a red carpet removal for Putin today while he really brawls with Biden later this week. Till the tension on the LAC is resolved, the cold treatment for the Chinese will continue.

Of course, there are other constraints like Sergei Lavrov’s flight To appease Pakistan from New Delhi earlier this year due to Rawalpindi’s influence with the Taliban. Russia’s special envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov often does this, rejected of New Delhi on the Afghan question.

However, Putin realizes that India’s size, economy, free-minded foreign policy and democracy are too important to ignore Russia or any country. In addition, Modi is a powerful prime minister and Putin recognizes power.

That’s why the visit of the President of Russia this week is such an interesting moment. This comes at a time when geopolitical friendship is in flux. As central powers, both India and Russia recognize it. They also recognize their values ​​for each other. Despite the uproar all around, Putin and Modi are not going to loose their special embrace.

Jyoti Malhotra is the Senior Consulting Editor of ThePrint. She tweets @jomalhotra. Thoughts are personal.

(Edited by Srinjoy Dey)

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