Maharashtra is opening schools from next week, but I recommend that children continue online classes until there is a significant reduction in the number of cases. Right now, we can see a flattening of the third wave curve of COVID-19.
Children are mildly infected with the Omicron type of the virus, in fact, pediatricians have observed a huge increase in the number of children infected during the third wave compared to the previous two years.
In the current scenario, where schools were closed but everything else was open, 80 per cent of the fevers I have treated in Hyderabad are Covid cases. I have spoken to my fellow doctors in other cities including Mumbai and Bangalore and the same is the case there. This rate of infectivity is alarmingly high. In the last two years, the infectious rate was just 10-20 per cent. If schools reopen at this time, we will be flooded with cases.
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Currently, the hospital admission rate for Covid positive children is only 1 per cent across India. With the reopening of schools, it is estimated that the infection rate can increase up to 100 percent. For example, if the number of cases is 1 lakh with schools closed, it will increase to 2-3 lakh when they reopen. So even if the denominator is 1 percent, there will be a sharp increase in the number of children admitted.
This will increase the burden on the healthcare infrastructure as children can become super spreaders even if they are not admitted to hospitals. This will make the elderly living with co-morbidities more vulnerable to the infection. There are also children with co-morbidities like asthma and heart disease and they can become seriously infected.
If an adult gets a mild infection, she can isolate herself and take medicines. However, with children, parents are more likely to go to the doctors. This adds another layer of burden because the number of pediatricians is small. There is a possibility of overcrowding in doctor clinics which can become a hotbed of infection. In addition, parents will be stressed out with the extra care and may need to take a break from work. Thus, the reopening of schools will put more pressure on the families.
That’s why we recommend that schools can reopen when cases are decreasing, not when they are halting. They can start classes with 15-18 age group who will be vaccinated by that time and can then call younger children.
The author, a pediatrician, is the medical director of Ankura Hospital for Women and Children in Hyderabad.
(As told to Kakoli Mukherjee)
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