Jana Sena Party President Pawan Kalyan and BJP State President Somu Veeraraju at a meeting in Vijayawada. Photo: Special Arrangement
TeaThe fate of the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in Andhra Pradesh assembly elections due before June 2024 largely depends on whether the opposition parties unite and which of them do.
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), confident that the anti-incumbency wave will work to its advantage, is treading cautiously in forging alliances. There has been a growing demand within the party for an alliance with the Jana Sena Party (JSP) given Pawan Kalyan’s mass appeal and his party has reportedly gained ground over the years.
Mr Kalyan has said he intends to chart his own course, if the situation demands, following unease between his party and the BJP. The remark is being seen as an indication of his inclination to embrace the TDP, which has not yet openly committed to the same.
Mr. Kalyan is reportedly unhappy that the BJP has not fulfilled its promises made at the time of bifurcation of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh. This includes facilitating the construction of the greenfield capital city Amaravati. But he is trying not to anger Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with whom he claims to share good relations, lest the state’s interests be compromised.
Sources say he is wary of the consequences of taking a hasty decision on an alliance, but are also indicating that he may eventually choose TDP as JSP’s new partner.
JSP came into existence on 14 March 2014, but did not contest elections that year. Instead, it chose to focus on building the organization first. It contested elections in 2019 but suffered a disastrous setback, winning just one of the 138 assembly seats in which it fielded candidates. Mr. Kalyan himself lost the elections from both the constituencies (Bhimavaram and Gajuwaka) in which he contested. Now, even Rapaka Vara Prasad Rao, the lone JSP MLA representing the Rezol SC constituency in Konaseema district, has crossed over to the YSRCP. Thus JSP is faced with the daunting task of improving from zero to at least a respectable double digit. It certainly cannot recover from another blow.
Its biggest dilemma, therefore, is whether to remain an ally of the BJP or join hands with the TDP or forge an alliance with both, if they feel the need to form such a united front to take on the ruling YSRCP. Are.
Meanwhile, BJP says that its alliance with JSP is intact. But some of its leaders say these statements are made for public consumption and that the party has ambitions to grow on its own.
BJP had joined hands with TDP in 2014 and won four seats. The alliance broke down in 2018. The National Party did not get a single seat in the 2019 assembly elections. It did not get even a single seat in the Lok Sabha elections. It had apparently faced the wrath of voters for not implementing the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Act and denying special category status. Now, the BJP is hoping to make inroads in the state in 2024 against all odds. The main problem is that it is being seen as tacit support to the YSRCP. Some BJP leaders reinforced this notion by openly making comments to this effect. The party high command had taken disciplinary action against him.
The BJP’s defeat in the recent elections to the Legislative Council does not bode well for its dream of doing well in the 2024 polls.
Meanwhile, TDP is pulling out all stops to capitalize on the anti-incumbency wave. Whether it tastes success remains to be seen, but it is at least a chance to improve its numbers in the assembly from the current 19. The TDP’s original strength was 23, but dropped to 19 as four of its MLAs – Vallabhaneni Vamsi Mohan, Vasupalli Ganesh Kumar, Maddali Giridhar and Karanam Balaram – joined the YSRCP, though they did not formally join it.
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Former Chief Minister and TDP President N. Chandrababu Naidu and Pawan Kalyan have met on a few occasions in recent months and discussed ways to end the YSRCP rule. However, they have stopped short of announcing their potential tie-up. He stressed the need for “democratic forces” to wage a collective fight against the YSRCP.
What seems certain is that at least two opposition parties will form an alliance to take on the YSRCP, which may be down but not out.