In the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday, right-wing populist Marine Le Pen got 22.9% of the vote on the back of a campaign focused on the dwindling purchasing power of voters. His far-right rival, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose campaign focused on prices, wages and welfare benefits, was not far behind, with 22% of the vote.
From France to Spain, Germany and Greece, a combination of nearly stagnant wages and rising prices is adding to protests and pressure on governments weakened by years of unpopular COVID-19 restrictions.
The dark mood raises questions about how prepared European voters are to bear the economic costs of what is likely to become a prolonged confrontation with Russia.
Russia accounts for about 40% of the EU’s imports of natural gas, a major source of energy for the bloc. It also supplies about a quarter of the block’s oil imports. While both continue to be supplied from Russia, their prices have risen sharply.
Eurozone energy prices rose 12.5% in February to March and were 44.7% higher than a year ago, according to the EU Statistics Agency. Food prices are also rising sharply, up 0.9% in March and 5% from a year ago, partly driven by concerns about shortages of wheat and vegetable oil, which Russia and Ukraine produce in large quantities. .
Samira Tafat, a podiatrist who lives in the Paris area, spends most of her day at the wheel, making house calls. Her husband is a taxi driver.
“Our fuel budget is huge, it has become unbearable,” she said. “I have three kids, I need to feed them.”
According to an Ipop poll in early March, 79% of nearly 4,000 people in France, Germany, Italy and Poland supported economic sanctions against Russia, while 67% supported the supply of military equipment to Ukraine.
However, there are growing concerns about the cost of living. A separate poll published last month by YouGov found that 82% of Germans expect their household bills to increase in the coming 12 months, compared with 79% of Italians and 78% of Spaniards.
This economic uncertainty is providing an opportunity for populist parties that remain in opposition in much of Europe to shift their public message away from traditional immigration, anti-Islamic and law-and-order situations.
In France, Ms. Le Pen’s campaign focused on the economic consequences of rising inflation. He has held rallies in small rural towns, promising to encourage businesses to lower taxes on fuel and other essentials and raise wages.
In contrast, advisers to President Emmanuel Macron said leaders were too busy making calls with President Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in earnest or arguing with their rivals about the war in Ukraine.
Elsewhere in Europe, right-wing populist leaders have echoed Ms Le Pen’s view. Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s anti-immigrant League party, has avoided speaking about the war, instead focusing on taxes and the economy.
Morena Colombi, who works at a cosmetics company near Milan, said her most recent two-month heating bill was 1,250 euros, which equated to about $1,361. Compared to €450 for the same period last year. She said that even before the war in Ukraine, her salary was not in line with inflation.
She used to go out for pizza every other weekend with her son or friends, but lately she has been doing it once a month. She has cut out going to the beautician and instead resorts to “do it your grooming”. She has also started shopping for groceries at discounters.
“I am worried all the time now because I see prices going up every day,” said Ms. Colombi, 61. “Prices go up and the salary is what it is.”
The poor are hit hardest by rising energy and food prices, as such essentials form a large part of their budget. In Europe, wages have not kept pace with inflation, leaving Europeans truly poor and threatening the region’s post-Covid-19 economic recovery.
In the last three months of 2021, hourly wages were 1.5% higher than a year earlier, while the average rate of inflation was 4.7% – a drop in real wages of 3.1%.
“Everything is going up except our salaries,” said Aurelie Karmann, a mother of two and living in Stiring-Wendel, a small town near France’s border with Germany. “It’s getting very difficult.”
A YouGov survey of German consumers released on 3 April showed that 15.2% of respondents said they could no longer meet basic necessities and 53.4% were concerned about rising prices, up 10 points in three months. .
Last week, Greece’s two largest labor unions went on strike nationwide to protest rising prices and call for an increase in the minimum wage. For example, by giving subsidies for electricity and gas bills, the Greek government has spent more than €3 billion to offset the effects of inflation.
“Prices are going up everywhere: supermarkets, clothes, water, electricity, gas, heating,” said Froso Batzi, 51, who works at a clothing company in Greece, and is married with two children. “It’s getting worse all the time.”
Esther Lynch, deputy secretary-general of the Confederation of European Trade Unions, which represents 45 million workers, says inflation levels, not seen since the 1980s, are driving demand for higher wages.
However, employers are less likely to agree when they face new disruptions in their supply chains as a result of higher energy costs, weaker demand and, in some cases, war.
A new wage deal was being negotiated between Germany’s IGBCE chemical workers union and employers after Russian troops entered Ukraine. On April 5, the two agreed on an interim solution, which gave workers a one-time payment to help with higher energy bills and other costs, until a new wage deal was agreed in October.
“In this period of great uncertainty for workers and companies, we had to find a solution that combines inflation relief with job security,” said union president Michael Vasiliadis.