DUBAI: Saudi Arabia’s crown prince says he doesn’t care whether Joe Biden misunderstands him or not.
According to sources familiar with Riyadh’s thinking, the prince is looking to his oil power to accomplish his goals: recognition from the US president that he is the de facto ruler of the kingdom and a strong hand in the costly Yemen war.
that’s one reason Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Sources said Russia has been resisting US pressure to pump more crude to bring down the price of oil since its invasion of Ukraine, besides keeping Riyadh’s oil deal with Moscow alive.
One of the sources familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking told Reuters: “The Saudis also have demands before they meet any requests from the US. Yemen’s file and the crown prince’s recognition as the de facto ruler are top notch.” Is.”
The traditionally strong ties between Riyadh and Washington were shaken when Biden released a US intelligence report implicating Prince Mohammed in the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and Riyadh’s costly action against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. American support for offensive operations in the war had ended.
So far, Biden has refused to speak directly to Prince Mohammed, saying King Salman, 86, is his counterpart — even though the young prince effectively runs the kingdom and had close ties with Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump. .
In an interview with The Atlantic published on Thursday, Prince Mohammed said he aimed to strengthen Riyadh’s long, historic ties with Washington, but he was not concerned about whether Biden misunderstood him.
“Just, I don’t care,” the Crown Prince was quoted as saying. “It’s up to him to think about America’s interests.”
Saudi officials did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Prince Mohammed, better known as MBS, denies any involvement in Khashoggi’s death.
Riyadh has repeatedly emphasized the strength of its strategic partnership with the United States and its oil policy is based on a commitment to market stability and supply security driven by market fundamentals.
only cards to play
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia have made historic output cuts to boost prices in 2020 after an unprecedented drop in global demand.
But since Russian troops moved into Ukraine last week and the West hit Moscow with tougher sanctions, oil prices have risen to their highest level since 2012, fueled by concerns about supply disruptions, pushing more crude. With global spare capacity to pump.
Washington wants the productive alliance, known as OPEC+, to sharply increase output since August, but only a few countries have excess capacity, including de facto OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). ) Are included.
The US State Department’s special envoy for energy affairs, Amos Hochstein, flew to Riyadh last month to hold talks about managing the potential impact on oil markets if Russia were to invade Ukraine – which he did a week later. did.
A second source familiar with Saudi thinking said, “MBS’s only card is an oil policy that pressures Americans to give what they want, which is recognition and weapons for Yemen.”
On Wednesday, the OPEC+ alliance stuck to its long-term plans for a gradual increase in output to 400,000 barrels per day every month, instead of rapidly increasing supply.
“Saudi Arabia … has sought not to appear to be acting against Russian interests. In doing so, the state could kill two birds with one stone: keep the door open for Moscow and allow President Joe Biden to join them. Give some payment for refusal. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,” wrote James Dorsey, Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
In a sign of his eagerness to be part of talks with Washington, Prince Mohammed canceled a trip to China for the Winter Olympics to make sure he was by his father’s side when Biden called King. Salman bin Abdulaziz On 9 February, three sources told Reuters.
State media said that in the call, which included energy, Iran and Yemen, King talked about maintaining market stability and stressed the need to uphold the OPEC+ treaty.
A Riyadh diplomat said, “The situation is still the same – equivalent to the counterpart – but given that the US is now in a difficult position, they can compromise,” said a Riyadh diplomat who wanted official US recognition and asked Riyadh’s seven I wanted Washington’s support. Year Yemen Campaign.
Asked for comment, a US State Department spokesman said: “While energy and security issues are important policy considerations for both countries, we will not discuss the details of our private diplomatic relationship.”
“As we have publicly noted, we have discussed with Saudi Arabia a collaborative approach to managing potential market pressures arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
try to stay neutral
Sources and analysts said Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states cannot afford to remain neutral for a long time between their Western allies and Russia, and will eventually choose the US as the region’s security guarantor – especially at the risk of secondary sanctions on Ukraine. looking at.
But for now, Riyadh and other Gulf oil producers may turn away from a neutral stance that allows OPEC+ to continue to function, a senior oil industry source said.
The last time producers settled, Riyadh and Moscow became embroiled in a price war and an all-out battle for market share, causing oil prices to plummet, ultimately hurting OPEC and US oil producers alike.
Other OPEC producers also say that the price jump is being driven by geopolitical tensions rather than market fundamentals, and that the market has reached an agreement to revive Iran’s nuclear deal when determining oil production. possible return should be taken into account. Level.
“The response we got from Saudis is that they see the OPEC+ agreement with Russia as a long-term commitment and they are not yet ready to jeopardize that cooperation… Standing with the West when it comes to security cooperation,” said a Western diplomat in Riyadh.
“They’re trying to be as neutral as possible, but now he (Russian President Vladimir) Putin Went for a complete invasion, they might not have that luxury anymore.”
with us or against us
The Gulf countries also have trade and geopolitical interests with Russia, whose president sided with the crown prince after Western leaders dismissed him in an uproar over the killing of Khashoggi at the state consulate in Istanbul.
But it was the West that sent troops to liberate Kuwait in the 1990–1991 Gulf War and defended Riyadh when the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.
And Riyadh and other Gulf states still rely on the US security umbrella, even as they move to diversify defense partners because of the perception that US commitment is waning.
“The United States remains committed to advancing Saudi defense,” a US State Department spokesman said. “We are also having a strong dialogue on helping Saudi Arabia improve its ability to defend its territory against security threats from Yemen and elsewhere in the region.”
Dorsey said the problem for Gulf leaders was that Ukraine could potentially open a Pandora’s Box in which the major powers on both sides of the divide were former US President George W. Bush’s post-9/11 quote: “You’re either with us or against us.”
In The Atlantic article, the crown prince indicated that if relations with Washington soured, other countries such as China would be ready to step in.
“Where is the potential in the world today?” he said. “It’s in Saudi Arabia. And if you want to miss it, I believe other people from the East are going to be very happy.”
According to sources familiar with Riyadh’s thinking, the prince is looking to his oil power to accomplish his goals: recognition from the US president that he is the de facto ruler of the kingdom and a strong hand in the costly Yemen war.
that’s one reason Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Sources said Russia has been resisting US pressure to pump more crude to bring down the price of oil since its invasion of Ukraine, besides keeping Riyadh’s oil deal with Moscow alive.
One of the sources familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking told Reuters: “The Saudis also have demands before they meet any requests from the US. Yemen’s file and the crown prince’s recognition as the de facto ruler are top notch.” Is.”
The traditionally strong ties between Riyadh and Washington were shaken when Biden released a US intelligence report implicating Prince Mohammed in the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and Riyadh’s costly action against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. American support for offensive operations in the war had ended.
So far, Biden has refused to speak directly to Prince Mohammed, saying King Salman, 86, is his counterpart — even though the young prince effectively runs the kingdom and had close ties with Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump. .
In an interview with The Atlantic published on Thursday, Prince Mohammed said he aimed to strengthen Riyadh’s long, historic ties with Washington, but he was not concerned about whether Biden misunderstood him.
“Just, I don’t care,” the Crown Prince was quoted as saying. “It’s up to him to think about America’s interests.”
Saudi officials did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Prince Mohammed, better known as MBS, denies any involvement in Khashoggi’s death.
Riyadh has repeatedly emphasized the strength of its strategic partnership with the United States and its oil policy is based on a commitment to market stability and supply security driven by market fundamentals.
only cards to play
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia have made historic output cuts to boost prices in 2020 after an unprecedented drop in global demand.
But since Russian troops moved into Ukraine last week and the West hit Moscow with tougher sanctions, oil prices have risen to their highest level since 2012, fueled by concerns about supply disruptions, pushing more crude. With global spare capacity to pump.
Washington wants the productive alliance, known as OPEC+, to sharply increase output since August, but only a few countries have excess capacity, including de facto OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). ) Are included.
The US State Department’s special envoy for energy affairs, Amos Hochstein, flew to Riyadh last month to hold talks about managing the potential impact on oil markets if Russia were to invade Ukraine – which he did a week later. did.
A second source familiar with Saudi thinking said, “MBS’s only card is an oil policy that pressures Americans to give what they want, which is recognition and weapons for Yemen.”
On Wednesday, the OPEC+ alliance stuck to its long-term plans for a gradual increase in output to 400,000 barrels per day every month, instead of rapidly increasing supply.
“Saudi Arabia … has sought not to appear to be acting against Russian interests. In doing so, the state could kill two birds with one stone: keep the door open for Moscow and allow President Joe Biden to join them. Give some payment for refusal. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,” wrote James Dorsey, Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
In a sign of his eagerness to be part of talks with Washington, Prince Mohammed canceled a trip to China for the Winter Olympics to make sure he was by his father’s side when Biden called King. Salman bin Abdulaziz On 9 February, three sources told Reuters.
State media said that in the call, which included energy, Iran and Yemen, King talked about maintaining market stability and stressed the need to uphold the OPEC+ treaty.
A Riyadh diplomat said, “The situation is still the same – equivalent to the counterpart – but given that the US is now in a difficult position, they can compromise,” said a Riyadh diplomat who wanted official US recognition and asked Riyadh’s seven I wanted Washington’s support. Year Yemen Campaign.
Asked for comment, a US State Department spokesman said: “While energy and security issues are important policy considerations for both countries, we will not discuss the details of our private diplomatic relationship.”
“As we have publicly noted, we have discussed with Saudi Arabia a collaborative approach to managing potential market pressures arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
try to stay neutral
Sources and analysts said Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states cannot afford to remain neutral for a long time between their Western allies and Russia, and will eventually choose the US as the region’s security guarantor – especially at the risk of secondary sanctions on Ukraine. looking at.
But for now, Riyadh and other Gulf oil producers may turn away from a neutral stance that allows OPEC+ to continue to function, a senior oil industry source said.
The last time producers settled, Riyadh and Moscow became embroiled in a price war and an all-out battle for market share, causing oil prices to plummet, ultimately hurting OPEC and US oil producers alike.
Other OPEC producers also say that the price jump is being driven by geopolitical tensions rather than market fundamentals, and that the market has reached an agreement to revive Iran’s nuclear deal when determining oil production. possible return should be taken into account. Level.
“The response we got from Saudis is that they see the OPEC+ agreement with Russia as a long-term commitment and they are not yet ready to jeopardize that cooperation… Standing with the West when it comes to security cooperation,” said a Western diplomat in Riyadh.
“They’re trying to be as neutral as possible, but now he (Russian President Vladimir) Putin Went for a complete invasion, they might not have that luxury anymore.”
with us or against us
The Gulf countries also have trade and geopolitical interests with Russia, whose president sided with the crown prince after Western leaders dismissed him in an uproar over the killing of Khashoggi at the state consulate in Istanbul.
But it was the West that sent troops to liberate Kuwait in the 1990–1991 Gulf War and defended Riyadh when the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.
And Riyadh and other Gulf states still rely on the US security umbrella, even as they move to diversify defense partners because of the perception that US commitment is waning.
“The United States remains committed to advancing Saudi defense,” a US State Department spokesman said. “We are also having a strong dialogue on helping Saudi Arabia improve its ability to defend its territory against security threats from Yemen and elsewhere in the region.”
Dorsey said the problem for Gulf leaders was that Ukraine could potentially open a Pandora’s Box in which the major powers on both sides of the divide were former US President George W. Bush’s post-9/11 quote: “You’re either with us or against us.”
In The Atlantic article, the crown prince indicated that if relations with Washington soured, other countries such as China would be ready to step in.
“Where is the potential in the world today?” he said. “It’s in Saudi Arabia. And if you want to miss it, I believe other people from the East are going to be very happy.”