(Bloomberg) — A plume of Saharan dust is set to curb solar generation in parts of central and southern Europe in the coming days, adding support to power prices around midday.
A low-pressure system with brisk southerly winds is forecast to carry sand from north Africa to Europe, resulting in moderate to high amounts of dust in the lower atmosphere in Germany and Italy on Thursday, said MetDesk meteorologist Matthew Dobson.
“This risk a bit hit and miss, as always, but could be a 10-20% reduction in solar for the areas affected,” Dobson said.
The rise of intermittent renewables in Europe has made weather a key driver of power prices, with fluctuating wind and solar output often reflected in short-term market rates. When conditions are favorable, prices can plunge — even turning negative. But when renewables fall short, the opposite occurs, as more expensive fossil fuels are called in to fill the gap.
A cold front will accompany this week’s weather system, which is also forecast to increase cloud cover across the region, data from Atmospheric G2 show. Dobson said scattered showers could also deposit dust on solar panels and reduce output, especially in southern and eastern Germany.
“The effects of Saharan dust can be enormous,” said Amani Joas, head of FlexPower. “In some years, up to 8 gigawatts less solar power than predicted was generated in Germany in one day.”
German grid operator Amprion expects reduced solar output until the weekend.
The Sahara Desert is one of the biggest sources of atmospheric dust for western and central Europe, with disruptions most common during warmer months. Research suggests they’re becoming more intense and frequent as climate change shifts the location of jet streams.
While the dust’s behavior and impact on energy generation is hard to predict, forecasts show German solar output dropping from over 36 gigawatts on Wednesday to below 25 gigawatts on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Power prices usually dip around midday during spring and summer when solar output peaks. But reduced generation is keeping prices elevated. Midday prices for Thursday are above €80 per megawatt-hour, compared to recent days when they plunged — at times below zero.
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