The markets regulator on 29 April warned people against engaging with opinion trading platforms, which let users wager money on the outcome of future events framed as binary propositions—typically “yes” or “no”.
Such apps, the regulator said, mimic investment platforms by using terms closely associated with securities trading, such as profits, stop loss, trading, etc. “Opinion trading does not fall within Sebi’s regulatory purview, as what is traded is not a security. Investors/participants should be aware that no investor protection mechanism under the securities market purview shall be available for such investment/participation,” it said in the advisory.
These platforms had been hoping for a framework similar to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
“Presently, we are regulated by MeiTY ‘(ministry of electronics and information technology) regulations. We have always ensured that we do not violate Sebi’s rules. With opinion trading platforms, we aim to democratise the ability to trade,” said the spokesperson of Probo, India’s leading opinion trading platform backed by Peak XV Partners, Elevation Capital, and The Fundamentum Partnership.
However, “any trading of securities on them is illegal (in case some of the opinions traded qualify as a security)”, said Sebi, adding such platforms are liable to face action for violation in that case.
“It’s unclear how these opinion contracts would qualify as securities under Indian law,” said an industry insider on the condition of anonymity. “They don’t involve ownership in a company nor promise financial returns like stocks or mutual funds do. Unless they start mirroring financial instruments, it’s hard to see them falling under Sebi’s definition of securities.”
Probo’s peers, MPL Opinio, Tradex and Trago did not immediately respond to Mint’s queries. While new, smaller entrants are emerging rapidly, the opinion trading market is still dominated by 5–6 major players.
The apps have grown exponentially in recent years, engaging over 50 million Indian users and registering over ₹50,000 crore in transaction volumes annually, with revenues projected to touch around ₹1,000 crore for 2024-25, according to consumer watchdogs and trader lobby the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).
Regulatory vacuum
The Probo spokesperson said these apps are building an information market for India similar to Kalshi Inc. in the US. “Presently, the CFTC (Sebi’s US counterpart) regulates opinion trading in the US and allows them to innovate. The question is: Does the regulatory uncertainty in India stifle the innovations in the opinion trading ecosystem?”
To be sure, Kalshi, despite being regulated by the CFTC, ran into trouble when it sought approval to offer contracts on election outcomes.
Sebi has directed recognised exchanges—National Stock Exchange and BSE— to take appropriate action against violations while clarifying that such platforms fall outside its investor protection framework.
The next plausible jurisdictional authority could be MeitY, particularly if these platforms are treated as digital intermediaries or gaming services. The ministry has previously raised concerns about the broader ecosystem, especially over user protection and regulatory oversight.
“The idea of democratising trading used by the industry voices likely reflects their attempt to position opinion trading as a new financial category—distinct from gambling, stock trading, or fantasy sports,” said another industry insider aware of the matter on the condition of anonymity.
“The goal should be to regulate compliant players without stifling innovation. But the bigger question is: Who would step in to do that? Many in the industry talk about self-regulation, but without a clear statutory framework or designated authority, it’s hard to say how effective or credible that will be,” added another industry insider close to the matter on the condition of anonymity.
Until a regulator steps in or a new framework is drafted, opinion trading platforms in the country are likely to operate in a vacuum like crypto trading apps did before 2022.