February 2023, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently said, was the warmest since 1901 with an average maximum temperature of around 29.54°C. While February – considered a ‘spring’ and ‘winter month’ by the IMD – usually sees temperatures in the low 20s, it is also evident that there has been a gradual increase, even in minimum temperatures is also scaling new heights. The average maximum temperature was 1.73 degree Celsius above normal and the minimum temperature was 0.81 degree Celsius above normal. In its latest assessment, the IMD has said that these trends are likely to spread in summer, “Above normal” temperatures are expected over most of northeast, east, central and northwest India. Heat wave conditions are likely during March-May over most parts of India except Northeast, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka. A ‘heat wave’ occurs when the actual maximum temperature exceeds 45 °C or if the temperature is 4.5 °C above the normal for the region. Studies have shown that climate change has increased the effect of heatwaves in India. A Lancet study reported a 55% increase in deaths due to extreme heat and 167.2 billion potential labor hours lost among Indians in 2021 due to extreme heat.
The continuous rising temperature has affected the yield of wheat. India produced 106.84 million tonnes of wheat in 2021-22 crop season, down from 109.59 million tonnes in 2020-21 season, as a warmer than normal March affected the crop during its growth stage . What these temperatures mean for this year’s monsoon is not yet clear as it is only after March that global forecast models are able to better analyze and reliably extrapolate sea surface conditions. In three of the last four years, India has received above-normal rainfall mainly due to La Nina, or below-normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region. While it is expected to subside, whether it will eventually turn into El Nino and draw moisture off India’s coasts remains to be seen. The interplay between local weather and climate is complex and while it is tempting to blame increasing heat intensity as ‘climate change’, the science remains uncertain. However, this should be a wake-up call to strengthen public health systems and make them more sensitive to the challenges of rising temperatures. Many states have action plans and early warning initiatives, but access is inadequate, especially in rural India. Along with promoting new crop varieties that mature sooner, greater emphasis should be placed on helping farmers change soil and water management practices to adapt to these changes.