Cosmos 482, a piece of an old Soviet spacecraft, is expected to fall back to Earth around May 10, more than 50 years after it was sent toward Venus, CNN reported.
Because of its strong heat shield, it might not burn up completely when it reenters Earth’s atmosphere. This makes it different from most space junk, which usually breaks apart and burns before hitting the ground.
The Soviet Space Research Institute (IKI) started in the 1960s during the space race between the Soviet Union and the USA. One of its big missions was the Venera program, which sent spacecraft to Venus.
In 1972, two probes were launched. Only one (V-71 No. 670) reached Venus and sent data back for 50 minutes. The second probe (V-71 No. 671) failed and got stuck in Earth’s orbit. It was later renamed Cosmos 482, also spelled as Kosmos 482.
Over time, bits of this failed spacecraft broke off and fell to Earth. Now, scientists think the main part of Cosmos 482 will fall back this week. It’s a heavy metal capsule.
Experts say it’s very solid, like a bowling ball, because it has stayed in space for so long. Although it had a parachute, it’s unlikely to work now due to the years spent in space.
How much is the risk of deadly impact?
As per experts, the risk of it causing deadly damage is about 1 in 25,000. The chance is lower than being struck by lightning.
If it does fall to the ground, it could land anywhere between 52 degrees North and South, which includes large parts of the world. The area comprises Africa, Asia, the USA, Europe and Australia.
However, since most of Earth is covered by water, it is more likely to fall into the ocean.
Scientists still don’t know exactly when or where it will fall. They are also unsure how big the part is.
Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an expert from Harvard, spoke to CNN about the risk involved.
There’s no need to worry, per Dr. McDowell.
“But, you wouldn’t want it bashing you on the head,” he quipped.