Russia’s decision to withdraw some troops shows that it sees potential in Macron’s and Scholz’s proposals.
Russia’s decision to withdraw some troops shows that it sees potential in Macron’s and Scholz’s proposals.
Russia’s announcement that it is pulling back some troops from Ukraine’s borders is the strongest indication of a de-escalation from Moscow. Russia has always said it has no plans to attack Ukraine. But massive military mobilizations on all three sides of Ukraine, including fighter aircraft, warships and S400 missile defense systems, raised fears of war. In addition, US warnings that a Russian invasion could come “any day” and its decision to close the US embassy in Kiev added to the frenzy. The Russian approach appears to be rooted in exerting military pressure around Ukraine to gain diplomatic advantage in negotiations with the West. In the past few weeks, European leaders, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz, have visited Moscow. Among these, diplomatic intervention by Mr Macron, who called for respecting Russian security concerns and sought to revive the Minsk Agreement on Ukraine’s civil conflict, and Mr Scholz, who said in Kiev that Ukraine’s accession to NATO was “on the agenda”. Was not in “now”, were important. His talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin opened a diplomatic path towards de-escalation.
It is too early to say that the crisis is over. The complex issue lies in Russia’s security concerns and NATO’s expansionary open-door policy with no quick resolution. But talks Russia and suggestions from the West point to a thread for peace. Russia has three concerns: One, it does not want neighboring Georgia and Ukraine to be members of NATO. Second, it wants NATO (read America) to withdraw its military presence and exercises from Eastern Europe and the Black Sea. Third, it wants the Ukraine crisis – the civil conflict between Russia-backed separatists in Kiev and the Donbass – to be resolved through the Minsk process. In talks with Mr Putin, US President Joe Biden has already said that the US has no plans to deploy offensive weapons or permanent combat troops to Ukraine and that Washington is planning to reduce exercises and missiles in Eastern Europe on a reciprocal basis. ready for Mr Macron has taken steps to revive the Minsk II deal to address Ukraine’s internal crisis. And then Mr. Scholz practically refused Ukraine joining NATO in the “near future”. Overall, it is a comprehensive package that can accommodate Russia’s security concerns and the West’s fears of Russian aggression. Moscow’s decision to withdraw troops partly suggests that it sees potential in these proposals. Russia may keep some troops at the border to keep pressure. But the obvious next step is to take these proposals through diplomacy to concrete agreements. That is the path the West and Russia must take to find a lasting solution to Europe’s most dangerous security crisis.
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