In Bihar, and more recently in Maharashtra, the BJP is the single largest party, but it has decided to allow a junior partner to be on top.
In Bihar, where it has 77 seats, the saffron party has JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar as CM, while his party has only 45 seats. In Maharashtra too, Eknath Shinde is leading the state even though he has only 39 rebel Shiv Sena MLAs compared to the BJP’s 106.
victory outside the ballot box
The fall of the Uddhav Thackeray government is the seventh time since 2014 that a democratically elected government has fallen after losing its assembly majority through defection or rebellion.
In six cases (Karnataka, Meghalaya, Manipur, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh) the BJP outperformed its rivals and was able to form the government, thus converting electoral defeats into victories outside the ballot box.
In most cases, the BJP benefited from its breakdown. CongressWhich is now in power in only 4 states – two of which are through coalitions.
Battleground Maharashtra (2019-22)
In 2019, the Fadnavis-led BJP government was overthrown by Uddhav Thackeray and his Maha Vikas Aghadi (comprising Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress). The MVA government, however, lasted only 2.5 years.
Though BJP has the maximum number of seats in the state, it has allowed Shinde of Shiv Sena to become the CM and form the government.
Madhya Pradesh (2020)
In March 2020, 22 sitting MLAs of the Indian National Congress resigned from the Madhya Pradesh Assembly, leaving the Kamal Nath government in disarray. The shock of death came when Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia suddenly went to meet him. PM Narendra Modiand Amit Shah.
Scindia resigned from the Congress soon after the meeting. A few days later, Congress and BJP approached the Supreme Court for a floor test.
Kamal Nath resigned before the floor test took place. After this, all the 22 rebel Congress MLAs joined the BJP.
On 23rd March 2020, Shivraj Singh Chauhan Sworn in as the new Chief Minister.
Karnataka (2018-19)
The BS Yediyurappa government came to power in May 2018 on shaky ground after the elections. He took oath as Chief Minister but his BJP government could not prove majority and fell after just three days.
Congress swung into action and formed an alliance with JD(S) to stake claim to form the government. Congress had won 78 seats and Janata Dal (Secular) 34 seats. Shortly after, HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) became the CM.
But only a year later, the government fell after 17 MLAs of Congress and JD(S) resigned following differences with Kumaraswamy.
The BJP, which had won 105 seats in 2018 and another in the bypolls in 2019, was unable to prove its majority after the then Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar disqualified the rebel MLAs, bringing the strength of the House from 224 to 207. Succeeded.
Yediyurappa’s strength increased to 118 – well above the majority – after 12 of the disqualified MLAs contested on BJP tickets and won a by-election in December 2019.
Meghalaya (2018)
The BJP was at its political best in Meghalaya, where it won just two seats, but still managed to overthrow the Congress, which bagged 21 seats.
In the 2018 elections, in the 60-member House, the National People’s Party (NPP), an ally of the BJP at the Center and Manipur, won 19 seats.
The BJP brought senior leaders including Kiren Rijiju and Himanta Biswa Sarma to the state for talks with regional parties. By the time the Congress could implement its strategy, the BJP had reached a compromise.
The NPP-led coalition won the support of 34 MLAs and staked claim to form the government. Konrad Sangma became the Chief Minister.
Goa (2017)
In the 2017 assembly elections, the Congress became the single largest party with 17 seats in the 40-member house. It needed four more MLAs to form the government. The BJP was successful in winning 13 seats.
Once again Congress avoided strategy, BJP sent senior leaders Nitin Gadkari and Manohar Parrikar will hold talks with two smaller parties – Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Goa Forward Party (GFP).
A deal was struck and Parrikar was appointed chief minister. Senior Congress leader and Goa in-charge Digvijay Singh later blamed the Congress for the mess.
Manipur (2017)
Like Goa, the BJP was able to form the government in Manipur even though it did not have the necessary numbers. The BJP had won 21 seats and the Congress 28 in the 60-member house.
Sarma again played an important role in securing the support of regional parties. Two Union Ministers – Piyush Goyal and Prakash Javadekar – Also helped in negotiations with regional parties. The BJP then called on former Congress leader N. Biren Singh, who had joined the BJP, was declared the chief ministerial candidate.
Following this, the BJP met Governor Najma Heptulla to stake claim to form the government with four MLAs from ally NPP, five MLAs from regional parties and one Congress MLA joining the BJP. Singh became the first BJP CM of the state.
Arunachal Pradesh (2014-16)
In the 2014 state elections, the Congress formed the government by securing 44 seats in the 60-member house. The government lasted only two years and this is yet another example of how the BJP has perfected the art of toppling governments.
Congress MLA Pema Khandu quit the party along with a group of rebel MLAs to form the People’s Party of Arunachal Pradesh (PPA) and joined the BJP-led coalition. Khandu, however, returned to the Congress along with all the rebel MLAs, and took over as chief minister in July 2016, replacing Nabam Tuki.
Two months later, Khandu rejoined the PPA with 43 MLAs. A month later, he formally joined the BJP, with 33 MLAs with him. Khandu then staked claim and formed the government with the support of his 33 MLAs.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won 41 out of 60 seats and formed the government under Khandu’s leadership. Congress got only four seats.
South India: The Last Frontier
Currently, the BJP rules a population of about 80 crore people (about 60% of India’s population) and has chief ministers in 12 states.
It also controls about half of the territory of India.
The growing footprint of the BJP has penetrated almost across India, except in the south, where the party is slowly making inroads.
Five states of South India – Andhra Pradesh, Tamil NaduTelangana, Kerala and Karnataka – elect 129 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
These five states can play a big role in forming the government in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Any gains in the South will not only add to the total numbers, but will also offset any potential losses the BJP may in the North. In such a situation, it has become important for BJP to increase its base in these states.
Since its formation in 1980, BJP has been continuously trying to increase its base in South India.
Karnataka is the only state in South India where the BJP has managed to form its government apart from the Union Territory of Puducherry.
But despite all the efforts, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu remain a challenge to the saffron party.
The BJP is determined to change this.
PM Modi We are eyeing states like Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has not had much success. After the vacuum left by stalwarts like Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi, the BJP is keen to make gains in the southern state.
The top BJP leadership too has high hopes from Telangana as leaders like JP Nadda and Amit Shah regularly visit the state.