Statecraft supplements to meet India’s challenges

Wars in Europe, involving Russia and Ukraine – Kyiv being backed by Western powers and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – and political turmoil in South Asia are in newspaper headlines today. This has put the debate on many of India’s internal security problems on the backburner. This is unfortunate, as many long-standing security problems tend to diminish and rarely go away.

security guard limits

While the security agencies of the country keep a close watch, it is rarely felt that the security agencies can only deal with the immediate threat. Long term solutions require the use of statecraft. An extra dose of protection is a temporary solution whenever a situation arises. This does not solve the problem. In order to change the mindset of both the authorities and those challenging the current order, it may be necessary to first acknowledge that there are limits to greater security. The next step is even more difficult, that is, to acknowledge that the forces threatening the state have recently intensified the adoption of new techniques and methods of warfare.

In many countries, both authorities and security agencies are beginning to recognize the importance of resorting to state of the art as an important adjunct to the role played by security agencies. Includes a nuanced understanding of the problems underlying Statecraft; Ability to respond quickly to political challenges. This includes strengthening the ability to take advantage of opportunities that lie ahead, and demonstrate some degree of political agility, rather than leaving everything to security agencies. In short, it requires equal emphasis on the implementation of policies and programs, rather than placing full faith in the security establishment. In fact, it entails strategizing in favor of political shrewdness, strength and agility after the initial phase.

turmoil in Kashmir

Two prominent examples that strengthen the above proposition are the current situation in Jammu and Kashmir and the continuing problem of Maoists. While Jammu and Kashmir has been a troubled region since 1947, the situation has changed over the years – sometimes turning extremely violent after normalcy. There is no proper solution to this long standing problem.

An example of this is the ongoing violence in Jammu and Kashmir that started about 18 to 20 months ago. The political anger over the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution is probably one reason for the local support available to the current crop of militants in Jammu and Kashmir. Most of them are believed to be domestic extremists, although they are supported by elements from across the border in Pakistan. Despite the reasons for the latest surge in violence, what is clear is that Jammu and Kashmir has again become a vortex of violence, which currently focuses on targeted killings of outsiders, mainly Kashmiri Pandits.

The migrant Kashmiri Pandits returning to Jammu and Kashmir have undoubtedly been given some concessions, including government jobs. This may have acted as a provocation, but what is equally disturbing are the targeted killings of police personnel, many of whom were on duty while others were on leave. Scrutiny of information from government vaults reveals that terrorists may have infiltrated the official machinery. They also appear to have access to data banks of police and security agencies. All this is leading to an atmosphere of uncertainty. Concerns exist that this year’s Amarnath Yatra (starting in late June) could be targeted by terrorists. If this happens, it could result in a climax of violence, leading to massive upheaval across Kashmir.

Clearly, the principle of containment adopted by the J&K Police and security agencies is not having the desired effect. Security analysts are of the view that a large section of the new cadres are perceived as ‘unexpected’, and this further aggravates the situation. The history of Jammu and Kashmir is replete with instances where a large presence of such ‘unforeseen’ elements has tended to favor violence on a large scale. What is also troubling is that strategies designed for one group of militants can rarely be applied to new elements, making it more difficult to stop the spread of violence. Today in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as elsewhere, there is no one-to-one strategy to deal with the situation. The missing ingredient is the state craft which alone can keep pace with the changing nature of the long standing problem.

Maoist shadow

While problems are now increasing for the security establishment in Jammu and Kashmir, in many core states of India, the police face a different kind of threat. Of all the facets of extremism in India, only the Maoists or Naxalites have a strong ideological base. Despite its ideological veneer, the Maoists/Naxalites still indulge in mindless violence to carry out dastardly killings. Inspired by Charu Mazumdar, the original Maoist leader in Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala (late 1960s and early 1970s) who spoke of ‘spring thunder over India’ (his claim followed by A ‘lit a spark to start the ‘prairie fire’) has since been replaced by fewer leaders, with some ideological pretensions.

The combination of ideological ideology and brutal killings has often confused and confused the police, intelligence and security establishments of the states and the Centre. In this sense, the Maoists are the biggest challenge to the idea of ​​India. The Maoists have rarely displayed a commitment to peaceful methods, protesting state violence, and showing a willingness to hold peace talks with both the state and central governments from time to time. New followers, thanks to its ideological base, are meanwhile readily available, and this further upsets officials who often claim that ‘Maoist is on its last legs’. Curbing the Maoist menace will require a considerable dose of state art, more than any other extremist or violent movement in the country, as many of the perceived demands of the Maoists resonate among the intellectuals in the cities and the ‘poorest of the poor’ . countryside.

Punjab and North-East

The need to use statecraft to deal with some other internal security problems – some of which have been lying dormant for years – is also becoming more apparent by the day. This category can include the resurgence of militancy by pro-Khalistan groups in Punjab, which may spread to Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. The recent discovery of ‘sleeper cells’ in Punjab clearly indicates the possibility of a revival of a pro-Khalistan movement – which once devastated large parts of Punjab. While pro-Khalistan sentiment exists in the United Kingdom and Europe, it has not been in evidence in India for some time. Hence, the recent attack by pro-Khalistan elements on the headquarters of the Punjab Police Intelligence Wing in Mohali was a blow to the security establishment. The incident looked like a warning shot by the Babbar Khalsa International, which is backed by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence – a reminder that terrorism has not been permanently eradicated in Punjab, and it requires shrewd state skills. would be required. nip it in the bud.

There are early signs of a crisis again in India’s north-east, particularly in the states of Assam and Nagaland, which may, at present, require the use of state-of-the-art security forces instead. In Assam, the United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent (ULFA-I) is trying to revive its activities after prolonged hibernation. Currently, ULFA-I operates out of Myanmar, and its fortunes have declined steadily over the past decade. However, latest reports indicate that ULFA-I has launched a recruitment drive which will need to be stopped before matters get out of hand. Similarly in Nagaland, where the National Socialist Council (IM) of Nagalim has recently taken a fresh initiative to address the ‘Naga political issue’, the situation is fraught with grave potential. Both examples deserve the use of state of the art so that the situation does not get out of hand.

a danger in the south

In the south, intelligence and police officials appear concerned about a possible revival of activities sponsored by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Tamil Nadu. This stems from the possible resurgence of LTTE-sponsored extremism in Sri Lanka after the recent economic crisis and uncertainty there. Security agencies in India believe that attempts may be made to reach out to elements in Tamil Nadu to revive the spirit of the 1980s. This situation again requires clever governance to prevent the resurgence of the past.

It should, therefore, be clear that the state of the art is vital in finding permanent solutions to many of the problems plaguing India. India faces many challenges today, but the answer is neither grand strategy nor grand simplification nor resorting to high doses of security. India must navigate its way through a complex set of circumstances and circumstances, and appropriately manage crises that might otherwise undermine peace and stability. A properly structured set of policies, a generous dose of state craft in addition to a proper set of safeguards, is the best answer to India’s needs, now and in the future.

MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.