When Recep Tayyip ErdoganWhen the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, riding on widespread discontent against the establishment amid an economic crisis, he was a political outsider – an Islamist in a system dominated by Kemalist secularists. Twenty years later, Mr Erdoğan is the establishment – the army, traditionally the custodian of the old order, is under his thumb, the institutions are under his control and the AKP, with close ties to the ulema, remains a supremacist political machine. But the economic and political situation of 2023 is comparable to that of 2002. Faced with a deepening economic crisis and accusations of backsliding democracy and freedoms, there has been widespread resentment against his long reign. To capitalize on this anger, the opposition united and managed to deny him a first round victory on May 14th, but in the rush of Sunday, He won a vote share of 52.1% against Kemal Kilikdaroglu’s 47.9%., Mr Kılıçdaroğlu has accepted the result, but called the election process “the most unfair in years”. He has got a point. Mr. Erdoğan and his allies control the mass media, shaping the information flow. State institutions, including the Religious Directorate (Diyanet), which controls mosques and appoints imams, amplify AKP propaganda. The president accused the opposition of having links with “terrorists” because the mainstream Kurdish party was supporting his rival. Mr Kilikdaroglu, a former bureaucrat from the minority Alevi community, led a spirited campaign but failed to overcome the AKP’s Islamist populism.
Arguably the most powerful Turkish leader since Mustafa Kemal ‘Ataturk’, Mr Erdoğan has reshaped the country’s politics and society over the past 20 years. Kemal Ataturk, who abolished the Ottoman Caliphate and secularized Turkey, saw the clergy as a threat to his vision for the country. The tension between Kemalism and Islamism has always been present in Turkey’s modern history. But until Mr. Erdogan came to power, no Islamist leader had managed to change the system. In doing so, he amassed powers, rewrote the constitution, turned it into an executive presidency, elected himself as all-powerful president, suppressed dissent, intensified the war against Kurdish rebels and jailed political rivals. Yet, this election was his biggest challenge. He had to go to the second round, and with only a three-point lead, he should be reminded that Turkish society remains polarized. The battered economy needs immediate attention. A new term is an opportunity for Mr Erdogan, whose legacy has already been tarnished by his authoritarian tendencies and mismanagement of the economy, to right mistakes and offer an inclusive fresh start. But it is unclear whether Turkey’s Islamist leaders are ready for such a change.