Sunak prepares for his biggest political test yet with Brexit deal

A resolution to the impasse in Northern Ireland would enable Britain to re-establish ties with the European Union, its biggest trading partner, more than three years after Britain formally left the bloc. The prime minister is also expected to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to drop its veto on the formation of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive. They have blocked its functioning for more than a year in protest at the so-called protocol, part of the Brexit deal governing the region’s unique place in the EU and UK trading markets.

Although the timing of a final agreement remains fluid, plans have been drawn up for an announcement as soon as this week. Sunak has seen a diplomatic flurry in recent days, holding meetings with parties in Northern Ireland and laying the groundwork with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

A senior government official said Monday’s announcement, despite newspaper reports, is now likely to be pushed back at least a day as Sunak continues to engage with the EU and the DUP.

Sunak N. Brexiters face grim reality as Ireland deal nears

Sunak’s attitude towards his own Tory MPs changed over the weekend. After keeping even most ministers in the dark about the status of a deal until now, government whips began approaching MPs on Saturday for their views on the shape of the final deal. He echoed Sunak’s words at the Munich security conference, telling lawmakers that progress has been made but more work is needed.

It revived the old Brexit debate in Tory MPs’ WhatsApp group chats over the weekend, with the role of the European Court of Justice in Northern Ireland at the forefront of their minds.

Although Sunak has secured 90% of his demands in talks with the EU, he has been unable to convince them that the ECJ should have no role in Northern Ireland, people close to Britain said. The EU, for its part, has assured member states that the integrity of the single market and the ECJ will be respected.

Former party leader Iain Duncan Smith wrote in the Telegraph on Saturday that “as long as EU laws and regulations apply to Northern Ireland, leaving the province out of its own UK single market and exclusively within the purview of UK law , the DUP cannot go back to the House.”

Johnson intervenes

Meanwhile, former prime minister Boris Johnson continues to be a thorn in Sunak’s side.

They believe Sunak would be making a huge mistake if he abandons the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill – legislation Johnson and Liz Truss introduced to allow ministers to unilaterally rewrite the bulk of the Protocol Done – said one person. Until Johnson has seen the text of a deal, he cannot make a decision on the terms of the agreement, the person said.

Government minister Penny Mordaunt told Sky News on Sunday that Johnson’s intervention was not “totally unhelpful” and said that seven tests for a deal to get the DUP’s seal of approval, the bar that is the government’s deal ” has to end.”

A senior government official said the use of the bill would depend on the kind of agreement reached and the government already has the necessary powers to implement the negotiated agreement.

brexit purists

Meanwhile, the DUP is in close contact with the European Research Group of hardline Brexit Tory MPs. Although some have privately admitted they do not have the power to block any new agreement, the ERG plans to meet on Tuesday, the outcome of which could undermine Sunak’s ability to garner the DUP’s support. Are.

Sunak may have to proceed without the support of some Northern Ireland unionists and Tory Brexiters, although he hopes to win over others. A government official told Bloomberg there could be three possible outcomes: that the DUP agrees to a deal and it goes ahead unopposed; A more likely scenario in which some DUP and ERG MPs oppose a deal but cannot stop it; and one in which Sunak attempts to further dialogue in order to make massive appearances.

He is likely to win a vote in the House of Commons even if he chooses to hold one, as the opposition Labor Party has offered Sunak “political cover” to get the deal over the line. Still, Sunak’s ability to manage delicate politics could end in victory or chaos next week.