Even after ‘Operation Captain’ is over, the party has to overcome hurdles to succeed in the assembly elections
The installation of Charanjit Singh Channi as the new Chief Minister of Punjab can be seen as an important milestone in the political history of the state in terms of the politics of ‘presence’. Mr. Channi is the first chief minister of the Dalit community in the political history of Punjab, going back to its pre-Partition days when governments were formed after the provincial elections of 1937 and 1946. Even with the Punjabi diocese accounting for a third of the population since its reorganization in 1966, major departments in previous governments never went to the community.
It is the Jat Sikh community which has consistently got disproportionate representation in assemblies and governments. Giani Zail Singh, a Sikh OBC, was the only exception as the Chief Minister of the state (later the President of India). Jat Sikhs qualify as the ‘dominant caste’, according to the formulation of the famous sociologist MN Srinivas (1972), because they are numerically strong, land-owning and not very low (moderate) in the caste hierarchy.
change is a big gamble
Considering the extremely narrow social base of political power in the state, it is clear that the Congress high command, a euphemism for the Gandhi family, by consecrating a non-Jat Sikh, and consecrating a non-Jat Sikh, even though Have done it reluctantly, have taken a gamble. Dalit society. Landless Dalits, being agricultural laborers in rural Punjab, have historically shared an uneasy relationship with the Jat Sikhs.
The high command has also played a gamble by indicating that it wants Navjot Singh Sidhu to be the face of the assembly election campaign, as clearly indicated by the Congress party’s Punjab affairs in-charge Harish Rawat. Though this was later denied after protests, the chief minister’s position has already come under question. Mr Sidhu, being the first choice of the high command in terms of electoral victory, is making it clear that he has been allowed to play the role of king-maker. He has reportedly vetoed chief ministerial chances of Sunil Jakhar and Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa and is currently influencing major administrative decisions. His loyalists like Pargat Singh have been included in the Channi cabinet. If the high command does indeed take such a drastic step, it would be in a position to face another round of discontent from Sidhu opponents within the party. The party will also lose the support base of the Dalit community in the state and elsewhere.
The party high command has abruptly replaced a long-time powerful chief minister (Captain Amarinder Singh) less than three months before the election code of conduct comes into force. This is perhaps the first time in the history of the Grand Old Party that the high command has proceeded so recklessly; There was no such development even during the Indira Gandhi-Rajiv Gandhi era. There are many similarities among other parties, except the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with Sushma Swaraj replacing Sahib Singh Verma just before the 1998 assembly elections in Delhi, which did not work out.
‘Social distancing’ is a risk
Mr Channi’s ‘historic’ appointment is being called a ‘master stroke’ / ‘game changer’. The ongoing argument is that the so-called ‘social balance’ will bring electoral dividends for the existing party as the ‘channi factor’ will strengthen and motivate the Dalit community. However, the community has historically been divided on the basis of regional, religious, linguistic and caste. Scheduled Castes, like other states, have never voted en masse for a party, if one, for the Center for the Study of Developing Societies and the region-based study by Kanchan Chandra (2004).
In fact, the Congress should instead be wary of an ongoing counter-mobilization among the Jat Sikh community, which is sensing the loss of power and attributing it to internal warfare between power-hungry community leaders like Mr. Sidhu. Is. A ‘disgraced’ captain, a former Sikh princely royal and a senior Jat leader with a career spanning five decades, can only add to the sense of loss. Capt Amarinder Singh has gained a lot of support among his fellow community for his bold stand face to face Center on sectarian issues, by getting the Punjab Termination of Water Agreements Bill passed as Chief Minister in 2004, resulting in cancellation of the 1981 agreement signed by the state on sharing of Ravi and Beas river waters with Haryana and Rajasthan. and, more recently, on the issue of controversial agricultural laws. Whether a rebel captain would try to sabotage the chances of the Congress by forming a regional organization or joining another party is another issue.
empty promises
It is doubtful whether the removal of Captain Amarinder will be enough to quell the anti-incumbency wave. After all, it was not just about Captain Amarinder’s leadership, however unpopular he may have become – as is being speculated citing surveys. This is mainly because of the non-fulfilment of the promises made by the party in 2017, to create new jobs, bring back industries, rejuvenate the agriculture sector and power sector reforms which have left the party MLAs and workers restless. . Beware of facing voters
Capt Amarinder was blamed in the public eye for his inability to act promptly against those responsible for the sacrilege and subsequent police actions (the incidents relate to sacrilege of a religious text and the subsequent police firing in Faridkot) can go. 2015). However, major failures like ending the drug menace and enriching land, sand and transport mafia cannot be seen as the sole responsibility of Captain Amarinder, as Aam Aadmi Party leaders have been alleging, it is only the Akalis. There are no party leaders, but many. Congress leaders who are under investigation for their involvement in wrongdoings.
much more
With ‘Operation Captain’ over, it is now on Sidhu and fellow rebel Jat Sikh leaders – most of them influential in only one region – to secure not only their community’s vote but other communities and other electoral people. Too. Area. The direct and visible role played by the Gandhi siblings (Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra) means they have to take on greater responsibility to keep discontent under control and ensure the success of the party. A tall order for them.
Already, the ‘revelation’ by loyalist Ambika Soni that a non-Sikh should not be appointed as chief minister in a Punjabi subah, allegedly for depriving senior leader Sunil Jakhar of the space, stokes the controversial Hindu-Sikh question. Which may be for the electoral benefit of the BJP in trouble.
Finally, with six first-time ministers, the Channi cabinet will need the whole-hearted support of the state’s higher bureaucracy, which is currently undergoing massive transfers, to deliver at least some of the unfulfilled promises. The higher bureaucracy may not be fully prepared to cooperate as elections are near and the Center is watching things carefully. Lack of time, empty treasury and huge debt will also be a big challenge.
Ashutosh Kumar, Professor and Chairman, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh
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