A A few weeks ago, when the Karnataka election campaign was in its final stages, the state unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Kerala received a message from the Prime Minister’s Office: a senior BJP leader told this writer that the PMO wanted details of the Swaraj round siege The 65-acre umbrella, Thekinkadu grounds, in the heart of Thrissur, to explore the feasibility of holding the Modi roadshow in the city. got a great response road show In Kochi last month, it was part of the ruling party’s aim to make the most of the Prime Minister’s goodwill in Kerala.
Earlier this year, the BJP had set an ambitious target of doubling Its seat count is 30 from the South, which sends 130 members to the Lok Sabha. Having reached the saturation point in northern and western India on the back of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which were fought primarily on the issue of national security, the BJP feels it needs to maximize its seats in the south to capture the potential in Bihar and Maharashtra. Will have to bear the loss. and Northeast. It is in this scenario that Modi’s “carpet bombing“The strategy needs to be relevant for the last phase of the Karnataka assembly elections.
a stinging loss
The crushing defeat in Karnataka, especially the margin of defeat, has dealt a major blow to BJP’s overall calculations for 2024 and beyond. The prime minister has invested so much of his energy in the last week before the election that it signals that the BJP has sensed a chance to at least retain power in partnership with the Janata Dal (Secular). The loss of its only bastion has set the party back a decade in South India.
Karnataka is a much smaller South India, made up of the erstwhile princely states of Hyderabad and Mysore, the Coorg province and the presidencies of Madras and Bombay.
Thus, the state has a large population that identifies in common with other southern states and cultures, BJP’s historical advantages include the Kittur-Karnataka (Mumbai-Karnataka) region adjacent to Maharashtra and the state’s coastal and Malnad (Western Ghats) concentrated in the areas. In the Lingayat heartland of Kittur-Karnataka, B.S. Yediyurappa, assuming the leadership of an emerging BJP in the state, convinced the community to support him as their leader, which was more about social engineering than anything else.
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BL Santosh Bet
In many ways, it was the appointment of BL Santhosh as BJP’s national joint general secretary (in charge of southern states) in 2014 – after his 2013 Harm in Karnataka after Yeddyurappa’s exit in December 2012 – which reshaped the party’s strategy in the state and the rest of South India. Originally borrowed from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Santosh was known to spread Karnataka to the rest of South India and had the ability to replicate strategies adopted elsewhere in the state.
At Madhav Niwas, the RSS headquarters in Kerala, a prominent Sangh figure told me how many times the “multilingual” Santhosh traveled to Kerala in those five years (2014-19), significantly influencing the BJP’s growth trajectory in the state ., It is true that the BJP did well electorally and opened its account in the state in the intervening period, but this too is a feat it has failed to replicate.
Hailing mostly from Tulu-speaking coastal Karnataka, two taluks of which – Kasaragod and Manjeshwar – were left behind in Kerala during the reorganization of states, Santhosh played a role in carrying out a generational overhaul of the Kerala BJP and taking on leaders such as K Surendran. under his wing.
On May 13, as election results from Karnataka came in, gloom descended on BJP offices across the state. Party leaders put on a brave face in TV studios for live coverage of the elections. However, these delegates had no hesitation in admitting in private that the BJP’s progress in the state would be dealt a severe blow after the electoral defeat in Karnataka.
While Santosh’s idea of replicating strategies that were successful in the rest of South India in Karnataka had merit, he may have failed to understand that the BJP’s Hindutva monolith is unlikely to work in Karnataka and beyond. True, it worked to a great extent in coastal Karnataka and adjoining Malnad due to various reasons, but it could not be extended to pan-Karnataka level.
Obviously, BJP is not expected to give up its strategy because of this defeat alone.
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Secular Bonds of South India
The people of South India have their own sub-national identity, which they identify with their national identity. Unlike the post-Partition animosity that existed in the north, these people have co-existed peacefully for ages and would not be amenable to a uniform Hindutva pitch. It is not so easy to polarize them only on religious grounds.
And hence the Prime Minister’s “Jai Bajrangbali” war cry (referring to the Congress manifesto) Proposal banning the Bajrang Dal in association with the Popular Front of India) did not translate into votes as the BJP might have hoped. The defeat of BJP national general secretary and hardliner CT Ravi in Chikmagalur must have also undoubtedly angered the party.
Hijab, halal food and other divisive issues like Tipu Sultan were on the backburner in the first phase of the campaign, but Modi didn’t hesitate to name them story of kerala, Sudipto Sen’s recent propaganda film, in his campaign to warn voters about the specter of Islamism. Finally, the huge turnout at Modi’s roadshows in Bengaluru and Mysuru and huge rallies belied the BJP’s performance in the election.
The BJP’s emphasis on infrastructure at the expense of welfare measures also failed in Karnataka – one of the less acknowledged reasons for the loss. Furthermore, the Congress leadership in Karnataka was not apologetic or nervous about speaking up for Muslims (as it usually is in the Hindi heartland) when it announced that it would restore the 4 per cent Reservation For community under category 2B in OBC list.
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Back to the drawing board
The BJP relied heavily on its performance in Karnataka, which it saw as an entry point into Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Retaining power here would have given it momentum for a massive exodus to these states, just as it has done in the Northeast in the last few years.
Instead, the BJP’s famous “double-engine” government has stalled south of the Vindhyas, but for a small share in the Union Territory of Puducherry, and finds itself back to the drawing board. In stark contrast to the Kerala BJP, the Congress had a spring in its step after the results were out, living to fight another day.
The author is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweeted @AnandKochukudy. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)