Yemeni street artist Alaa Rubil walks towards one of his artworks painted on a wall in the southern port city of Aden. Rubil uses the shell-filled buildings of his hometown as a canvas to depict the horrors of war. Photo Credit: AFP
Saudi-led war broke out in April this year Yemen Completion of eight years, a diplomatic delegation from the kingdom arrived at Sana’a airport for talks Houthi enemy. Some details of the talks soon became public: leading up to a year-long ceasefire, the two sides agreed to a six-month ceasefire, which would be followed by three months of talks to agree on a two-year “transition” period. The Yemeni state that would emerge after the war would be finalized. The Houthis asked that the blockade of Sana’a airport and Hodeidah port be eased and that the kingdom pay salaries from the country’s oil revenues. An agreement was also reached on the immediate exchange of prisoners.
death and destruction in yemen
Saudi Arabia, leading a coalition of some Arab forces, launched a military operation on March 26, 2015, to prevent the Houthis, a Shiite militia representing the marginalized Zaidi community and allied with Iran, from taking control of Yemen. to stop, with which the state shares a 1,400-km porous border.
However, the war has reached a stalemate, with the Houthis controlling the capital and major port, Hodeidah. The Alliance controls the sea and sky and large parts of the South, thus preventing essential food, medicine and energy supplies from reaching the population. With nearly 400,000 dead, including 85,000 children, and several million displaced, Yemen is facing a severe humanitarian crisis: 80% of its people (over 20 million) are in need of assistance, while six million are on the brink. of starvation.
Given the estimated expenditure of nearly $60 billion in the eight-year conflict, Saudi Arabia has been eager to get out to save face. The Saudi-Iran agreement brokered by China in March provided this opportunity. There are reports that Iran has agreed to cut military supplies to the Houthis and facilitate the peace process, thus opening the door for a Saudi-Houthi engagement in April.
What has been achieved so far is an exchange of prisoners and an easing of the blockade on Sana’a and Hodeidah; Humanitarian aid has arrived and flights have taken Yemeni pilgrims to Mecca for the hajj, including Houthi leaders.
Challenges to the Peace Process
Challenges getting in the way of the peace process include the Houthi’s insistence that the kingdom pay the salaries of all government officials, including armed forces personnel, from Yemen’s oil revenues for the past few years. The Saudis are hardly enthusiastic about providing money to their former enemies. The Houthis are also seeking “compensation” from the Saudis for war damage; The latter are willing to consider contributing to reconstruction, but balk at the idea of ”compensation”.
The Houthis are also reluctant to engage with the eight-member Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) that heads the internationally recognized Yemeni government. They insist on direct talks with the Saudis, while the Saudis want to be “mediators” between the Yemeni factions.
The key point regarding the Yemen scenario is that the Houthis have won the war and the Saudis are desperate to get out of the country. Thus, the Houthis have the upper hand in negotiations over the Saudis and the PLC they established. Even with reduced Saudi involvement with Yemen, the PLC would lose its prestige and credibility and open the country, especially the northern regions, to Houthi control.
But there is another matter that complicates the scenario in Yemen. The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed movement based in Aden, wants the southern provinces that once constituted the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), an independent communist country from 1967 to 1990, to be replaced. become an independent state again. An academic from the United Arab Emirates has caused considerable unease in Yemeni circles by suggesting a possible name for the new entity: “Arab Southern State” or “Arab Hadramaut State”.
This reflects the competing geopolitical interests of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen. The UAE’s control of ports in South Yemen, Eritrea and Somaliland, as well as Socotra Island in the Gulf of Aden and Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab al-Mandab, already gives it a dominant geopolitical and commercial position in the western Gulf of Africa. Indian Ocean. It is supporting the independence agenda of STC to maintain these gains.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking a unified Yemen so that it can exert influence over the South Yemeni provinces of Hadramaut and al-Mahra: Hadramaut shares an 800 km border with the kingdom, while al-Mahra can provide oil. Is. Pipeline from Saudi Arabia to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the state has sponsored its own Hadhramaut National Council which rejects the STC’s independence agenda and is satisfied with autonomy in a united Yemen.
Recent reports also suggest that Saudi Arabia, eager to leave Yemen, may accept a north-south divide, but would like to exclude the UAE and control Aden and the southern regions for itself.
Another complicating feature is that, despite the Saudi-Iranian friendship, Iran can be expected to maintain ties with the victorious Houthis, maintain its influence in Yemen, and even strengthen its presence in the Red Sea. Is.
Thus, even with the end of hostilities in the war-torn country, the rivalry between diverse Yemeni factions and the competing interests of regional powers will ensure that peace and stability will still be far from over.
Talmeez Ahmed is a former diplomat