Only a united opposition can give a tough challenge to the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections.
the stakes are high for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has to ensure that it retains power in four of the five states (Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur) where elections are due early next year. Congress is in power in Punjab alone. although in error.
nature of competition
This will be the first assembly election after the second wave of COVID-19, which resulted in the loss of thousands of lives and drew a lot of criticism from the BJP government. The ongoing farmers’ agitation and the recent incident in Lakhimpur Kheri, where four farmers were allegedly crushed by the son of a Union Minister of State (Home), have only added to the trouble for the BJP. But if anyone thinks that due to these reasons BJP will be defeated in these elections, then he will be wrong.
In these four states, the BJP may not be as popular as it was during the 2017 assembly elections, but the nature of the contest may give the party an advantage. A possible multi-cornered contest in these states could result in fragmentation of the anti-BJP vote, giving the BJP an edge. It will be difficult for the Congress to attract all the anti-BJP votes and defeat the BJP, but after the 2022 assembly elections, it can emerge as the main opposition party in many states. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC), which are making serious efforts to contest elections in some of these states, may hurt the prospects of the Congress as they may be able to garner some votes. This will be enough for the BJP to retain power even if its vote share falls. Therefore, the opposition parties need a coalition to reduce the split of the anti-BJP votes.
BJP dominance in UP
Those who think that Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s protest against the Lakhimpur Kheri incident and her announcement that 40% of tickets in UP will be given to women candidates can be a game-changer for the party. It would be impossible for the Congress, which has performed poorly in the state in recent years, to make a comeback only through protest and symbolism. The party’s decision to give 40% tickets to women is a bold move, but it is too late and too little in mobilizing women voters. The Congress may be able to increase its vote share, but if it contests alone, it may shy away from giving any challenge to the BJP.
The challenge to BJP can neither come from Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) nor from Samajwadi Party (SP) if these parties contest against each other. Both these parties have around 20% vote share in UP. The main supporters of SP are Yadavs, while Dalits, especially Jatavs, constitute the basic support base of BSP. These two parties compete against each other for Muslim votes, resulting in a split in these votes and the SP gets an edge. At least these two parties need to form an alliance to reduce the split of anti-BJP votes in UP. Only a united opposition can defeat BJP in UP in 2022. The alliance of SP and RLD will not be enough.
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To defeat BJP, which got 39.6% votes 2017 UP Assembly Elections, about 7-8% of the votes need to be taken away from this. This can only be accomplished by the single largest opposition party, but during the 2017 assembly election the largest opposition party, the SP, is unlikely to garner around 8-9% of the vote on its own at the expense of the BJP. Only a united opposition can achieve this.
Despite getting a thumping majority in Uttarakhand in 2017, the BJP government has been unstable. The state has seen three chief ministers since that election. If the 2022 assembly election turns out to be a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP, then the Congress has a good chance of defeating the BJP. But with the entry of AAP in the electoral contest, things do not look so easy for the Congress. AAP may not be able to win the election on its own but may garner enough votes to damage the chances of the Congress, thus benefitting the BJP by default.
The entry of TMC and AAP in the electoral fray in Goa could lead to a multi-cornered contest in the state. A divided opposition will again benefit the BJP. Also, the Congress in Goa is no longer the Congress of 2017 as many leaders have left the party and joined other parties, mainly the BJP.
In Manipur, a lot depends on how the BJP forges alliances before or after elections. The BJP has been ahead of the Congress in forming post post alliances even with fewer seats in many states.
lessons from history
In India, whenever a political party has become highly influential, it is challenged only by a joint opposition or pre-election or post-election coalitions of opposition parties. In the 1977 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress suffered a setback when the Janata Party defeated it. In the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress was challenged by the BJP, which forged alliances with various regional parties; The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won both these elections. The NDA government was challenged by the Congress in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections when the Congress forged an alliance with regional parties. Thus, the current dominant party, the BJP, can be challenged only by a united opposition. Looking at the current political mood of the people of India, no one else can push the BJP back in the electoral race.
Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-Director of Lokniti, a research program at the Center for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi.
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