The war against Ukraine ended Europe’s dream of Russia as a friend

The Russian attack on Ukraine marks the end of European efforts to deepen economic and diplomatic ties, even as President Vladimir Putin has become an increasingly aggressive neighbour.

Russia will now be subject to more comprehensive sanctions, as well as diplomatic appeals for a ceasefire and support for Ukrainian refugees. Furthermore, Europe’s democracies face a question that could define the next era in the continent’s history: how to handle Russia that has openly declared that it will rewrite the end of the Cold War. wants, and is supporting his will with force.

The war would likely force Europe and America to shift toward new policies of control of Russia, including strengthening the military capabilities of European countries, bolstering security in the east of Europe, and diverting the region’s energy sources from Russian oil and gas. Efforts to expedite removal may include efforts. ,

One result is clear: Europe’s search for dialogue and constructive engagement with Moscow is doomed. Visits to the Kremlin by the leaders of France and Germany earlier this month were the last desperate attempt to elect Mr Putin to reconciliation. The longer and bloodier the war, the more difficult it will be for pro-Russian politicians and business groups to re-establish their influence.

“This is a turning point,” said Jonathan Eyal, associate director of the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Ukraine will be an open wound. This time it will be very difficult for French and German politicians to say ‘Let’s leave this behind. We.'”

For three decades, Western European countries have attempted to reach a residence, to build friendship with Moscow. The outlook has reflected economic opportunities and a belief that Russia is too important to be marginalized. At the same time, however, European governments have vowed to maintain a continental system based on the freedom of democratic nations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the European Union and both.

Mr Putin has been saying for more than 15 years that the West cannot have it either way. After the loss of the former Soviet Empire of Moscow and condemning the creeping of Western institutions to the east, they invaded Georgia in 2008 and parts of Ukraine in 2014, with both countries NATO and the EU for Ukraine. After the demand for trade agreement.

Germany, the continent’s economic giant, has long embodied Europe’s bisexual attitude towards Russia. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel led the imposition of EU sanctions against Moscow for its 2014 incursion into Ukraine. But it also oversaw the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany, in the teeth of warnings from the US and several European countries that the pipeline, bypassing Europe’s east, including Ukraine, would strengthen Russia’s hand.

On Tuesday, the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for additional pipelines known as Nord Stream 2, saying: “The situation today is a fundamentally different one.” By linking Russia’s gas and its threat to European security, Mr Scholz broke through Ms Merkel’s ambiguity. Legacy and eventually heeded the demands of the German allies. “Nord Stream 2 is dead,” said François Hesberg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.

In Western Europe, the dream of a partnership with Moscow took a long time to come true. Confidence in Russia was always low in the former Soviet satellites of Central and Eastern Europe, where new democracies saw NATO and EU membership as a guarantee of national independence against a possible withdrawal of Russian influence.

In a post-Cold War honeymoon period, the leading members of the European Union and the US hired Russian President Boris Yeltsin as their new friend and partner in managing a new world order. Enthusiasm faded as Moscow tried to make an impact in the Balkan wars of the 1990s, only to be brushed off by the West. Under Mr Putin in the 2000s, Russia expressed growing frustration with the US-dominated world order and NATO’s expansion to take on former Soviet satellites.

Mr Eyal of the Royal United Services Institute said the expansion of NATO reflected an early realization that Europe east of Germany could otherwise be dangerously unstable. “It has been the curse of Europe since the end of World War I,” he said. “Countries in Central and Eastern Europe are too small to care about their own security, leaving them a choice between a pan-European security structure or being swallowed up by a sphere of influence. This is exactly what Ukraine is today. It’s a drama.”

The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 foreshadowed events in Ukraine after escalating fighting between Georgia’s pro-Western government and Russian-backed rebels. The brief war did little to change attitudes towards Moscow in Germany, France, Italy and other Western European countries, where prominent politicians insisted that talks, not confrontation, were the way to deal with Mr. The US announcement of the resumption of ties with Russia was soon met with enthusiasm in major EU capitals.

“In some countries, there was a fundamental misinterpretation of Russia that persisted for too long,” said Nathalie Tosi, director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome. “It was much more than just an economic and energy relationship. The idea that Russia is a great country, that Europe can find security only with Russia and not against it, and the historical injustice meted out to Russia after the end of the Cold War.” What happened – which is the Russian legend – has resonated greatly in parts of the European establishment.”

Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2014, when it annexed Crimea and fueled a separatist war in the eastern Donbass region, prompted a partial reconsideration. Limited EU sanctions have remained in place since then.

Mr. Hesberg said, “Ties with Russia have really never been the same again. The decision was made to significantly increase military spending in NATO countries, which is on track. The sanctions were mutually settled, and enforced. Was done. Was it enough? Definitely not what we are seeing today.”

As time went on, European politicians began to melt again. Among them was French President Emmanuel Macron, who in 2020 said sanctions were not working and suggested that Russia could be a partner in dealing with China.

Last summer, Mr Macron and Ms Merkel pressed for a renewal of talks, proposing a European summit with Mr Putin. But he had misread the mood of the Eastern European Union, blaming Moscow for the ongoing low-level war in the Donbass, cyberattacks and propaganda campaigns in EU countries, and other aggressive actions.

In December, Moscow sent Western draft treaties that effectively called for a rollback of NATO in Eastern Europe and the restoration of the Russian sphere of influence. Since then, the pro-Russian voice in Europe has become quieter than at any time since the Cold War.

“Now, everyone in the EU clearly speaks of Russia as a threat,” Ms Tosi said. “Mr Putin has managed to unite us.”

This story has been published without modification to the text from a wire agency feed