TeaThat Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2025, has ignited the dispute across India, especially among Muslim leaders. It has resigned from some Janata Dal (United) leaders, causing disturbance in the ruling alliance and center of JD (U) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar. To go to Bihar elections later this year, this disturbance raises questions about the electoral implications for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
While there is a large number of Muslim voters in Bihar, who hold the key for electoral success in many assembly constituencies, it is feared that the Waqf Act may adversely affect the NDA’s electoral prospects in Bihar as the JD (U) -BJP alliance has never been the choice of Muslim voters.
According to the 2011 census, Muslims form about 18% of Bihar’s population. In about 40 assembly constituencies, Muslims are responsible for more than 25% of voters, 20–25% Muslim voters with another 20 seats. In some constituencies such as Amour and Kochadhaman, Muslim voters are more than 70%. Overall, Muslims affect 60-70 out of 243 assembly seats in Bihar. An integrated Muslim vote can give results in these areas.
However, historically, JD (U) -BJP has failed to get adequate support from the coalition community. The only exception to the 2015 elections was when JD (U) formed an alliance with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. Despite being the champion of Nitish Kumar Pasmanda Muslims, he has not been able to attract Muslim votes at the center and the state due to his party’s alliance with the BJP.
Evidence of Lokniti-CSDs Post-Poof Surveys suggests that it is the RJD-led Mahagathbandon who has taken a large part of the Muslim vote in the last three decades. During the assembly elections in February 2005, 40% of Muslims voted for RJD -led alliance; 4% voted for the BJP -led alliance, including JD (U); And 13%for Congress. A significant part of Muslim voters (34%) voted for other small parties and independents. This may be due to some dissatisfaction among Muslim voters after RJD’s 15 years and its colleagues remain in power. There was a fragmented decision in that election.
There was no significant change in the Muslim vote during the assembly elections held in October that year, in which 9% of the Muslim voters voted for the NDA and 51% voted for the RJD -led coalition. It is important to mention that during this election, the Congress was an ally of RJD, which was not so during the assembly elections held in February 2005.
During the 2010 assembly elections, the NDA, which included Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and BJP, saw an increase in the support of Muslims (21%). Conversely, support for RJD was divided, in which 32% supported the party and 22% supported the Congress, who was not an associate with RJD during that election.
During the 2015 assembly elections, RJD, JD (U), and Congress in Mahagath Bandhan received support from 69% Muslims, while NDA received only 6% of Muslims support. In 2013, the rift between BJP and JD (U), and an alliance between JD (U) and RJD, may have helped JD (U) to achieve credibility among Muslim voters.
In 2020, JD (U) re -included NDA. Muslim votes were minimal for NDA, only 5% of Muslims supported it. The RJD -led Mahagatdhan received 76% Muslim votes, which increased significantly compared to 2015.
This clearly states that the NDA consists of JD (U) and BJP, as the chief partners have never been the beneficiaries of Muslim votes. Even if the Muslims are unhappy or angry with the passage of the Waqf (Amendment) Act, it cannot adversely affect the political possibilities of the NDA in Bihar.
While the Waqf (Amendment) Act has undoubtedly created dissatisfaction between Muslims across Bihar and all over India, its political consequences may be limited in Bihar. Voting data shows that the JD (U) -BJP alliance has never been a primary option for Muslim voters, except a brief 2015 alliance between RJD and Congress. Thus, while the dispute may deepen dissatisfaction, it is unlikely to move electoral mobility in 2025 – unless other variables change the existing voting patterns.
Sanjay Kumar and Krishangi Sinha are with Locheti-CSD
Published – April 29, 2025 01:55 AM IST