New Delhi: A heat wave devastating for India and Pakistan in recent months has raised the prospect of climate change further and is a glimpse into the region’s future, international scientists said in a study released on Monday.
The World Weather Attribution Group analyzed historical weather data that suggest early, prolonged heat waves affecting a vast geographic area are rare, once-in-a-century events. But current levels of global warming due to human-caused climate change have made those heat waves 30 times more likely.
If global warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels, such heat waves could occur twice a century and once every five years, says Arpita, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology. Mandal said. of technology in Mumbai, who was part of the study.
“It’s a sign of things to come,” Mandal said.
The results are conservative: an analysis published last week by the United Kingdom’s Office of Meteorology says a heat wave is likely 100 times more likely to be triggered by climate change, with such scorching temperatures likely to recur every three years. Chances are.
The World Weather Attribution analysis is different because it is trying to calculate how specific aspects of a heat wave, such as length and affected area, were more likely from global warming. “The actual result is probably somewhere between our and the (UK) Met Office’s result on how much climate change has exacerbated this phenomenon,” said Frederick Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College in London who was also a part of the study. .
However, it is certain that Lu has wreaked havoc. India went through the warmest March in the country since records began in 1901, and April was the warmest on record in Pakistan and parts of India. The effects have been widespread and widespread: the eruption of a glacier in Pakistan, sending floods downstream; The early summer scorched the wheat crop in India, forcing it to ban exports to countries reeling under food shortages caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine; This resulted in a rapid increase in the demand for electricity in India which led to depletion of coal reserves, resulting in severe power shortage affecting millions of people.
Then there is the impact on human health. At least 90 people have died in both countries, but insufficient death registration in the region means this is a low number. South Asia is most affected by heat stress, according to an analysis by the Associated Press of a dataset published at Columbia University’s Climate School. India alone is home to more than a third of the world’s population that lives in areas where extreme heat is increasing.
Experts agree that the heat wave underscores the need for the world to combat climate change not only by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, but to adapt as quickly as possible to its harmful effects. Children and the elderly are most at risk from heat stress, but the impact is even greater for the poor, who do not have access to cooling or water and often live in overcrowded slums that are leafy. , are hotter than affluent neighborhoods.
Rahman Ali, 42, a rag picker in an eastern suburb of the Indian capital New Delhi, earns less than $3 a day by collecting garbage from people’s homes and salvaging whatever can be sold. It’s backbreaking work and her tin-roofed house in a crowded slum gives a little respite from the heat.
“What can we do? If I don’t work… we won’t eat,” said the father of two.
Some Indian cities have tried to find solutions. The western city of Ahmedabad was the first city in South Asia to prepare a heat wave plan in 2013 for a population of over 8.4 million. The plan includes an early warning system that tells health workers and residents to prepare for heat waves. , empowers the administration to keep parks open so people can stay in the shade and provide information to schools so they can make changes to their schedules.
The city is also trying to “cool” the roofs by experimenting with different materials that absorb heat differently. Dr. Dilip Mavalankar, head of the Indian Institute of Public Health in the western Indian city of Gandhinagar, said he aims to create roofs that reflect the sun and reduce indoor temperatures by using inexpensive materials such as white, reflective paint or dry grass. Helped with planning for 2013.
Most Indian cities are less prepared and India’s federal government is now working with 130 cities in 23 heat wave states to develop similar plans. Earlier this month, the federal government asked states to educate health workers about managing heat-related illnesses and ensure that ice packs, oral rehydration salts and cooling equipment are available to hospitals.
But Mavalankar, who was not part of the study, pointed to the lack of government warnings in newspapers or TV for most Indian cities and said the local administration “has not woken up for the heat.”
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