Russian officials said last month that two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters entered Russian airspace while flying at low altitude to evade air defenses and launched a missile attack on a fuel depot in Russia’s Belgorod region, which is in the country’s western region. There is a province located on the shore. 20 miles from the war-torn city of Kharkiv in Ukraine.
Since then, an ammunition depot exploded near the city of Belgorod and explosions have been reported inside the city. Last week, fires broke out at other oil depots, including one at a Russian military base. Other explosions damaged rail lines beyond Belgorod in Kursk and Bryansk provinces. Ukraine has denied its role in the incidents.
Ukraine’s presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, who declined to comment on whether Ukraine had any involvement in the blasts, has said they may have been caused by divine vengeance after the killing of Ukrainian civilians.
“There can be completely different reasons for the destruction of military infrastructure in the border provinces, even … divine intervention,” he said.
Russia on Thursday blamed Ukraine for shelling inside Russia during artillery exchanges between the two sides on the border, but Russian officials have downplayed major incidents in recent weeks. Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov denied that the city of Belgorod had come under attack by Ukrainians, telling residents that a series of loud explosions in recent days were the result of military operations, without giving details.
But Western analysts believe that Ukraine sought to attack transit and logistics infrastructure inside Russian territory to disrupt Moscow’s attempt to concentrate forces in Ukraine’s east.
“Ukraine is looking at cross-border operations, and it is looking for certain targets that could disrupt the Russian war effort,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based foreign policy think tank.
Belgorod has become a strategically important logistics center for Russian plans to take control of the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine and deploy Russian troops to the south towards the urban centers of Slovensk and Kramatorsk, where Ukraine’s operations to the east. Headquarter is located. Ukrainian military commanders reported last month that a division of Russia’s Central Military District units, the 14th Air Defense Army and Iskander-M ballistic missile units were being sent to Belgorod for final deployment to eastern Ukraine.
“Russia wants to make this fight about the Donbass. Ukraine wants to do the exact opposite, extend the fighting as much as possible to prevent Russia from concentrating forces, and cross-border operations are one way to do that.” is,” Mr. Lee said.
The Institute for the Study of War said in a report that the Ukrainian military would likely continue to conduct cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics with drone or missile strikes. But the new weapons Ukrainians will receive from the West are far more powerful than anything they or the Russians have, increasing the potential for further attacks inside Russian territory.
At the start of the conflict, Ukraine proved its ability to reach targets inside Russia. On February 24, a day after Russia launched an early-morning missile attack on Ukrainian military infrastructure, Kyiv reportedly struck one of the airfields involved in the invasion with a ballistic missile attack that killed one pilot. .
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials commented on the strike, but a military academy from which the pilot graduated said that when Ukraine struck the Tochka-U on 25 February at Millerovo Air Base in Rostov province, Russia. When attacked with a ballistic missile, he died from the wounds he received.
On 15 April, Major General Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, said that Russian air-defense systems had shot down a Ukrainian helicopter that had fired at targets in Russia’s Bryansk province.
Mr. Lee said Russia’s failure to prevent more incidents at fuel depots and railways could be the result of increased intelligence between the West and Ukraine about where Russian air-defense vulnerabilities might be or the use of electronic warfare. Includes information. Agreement with Russian air defense systems.
Attacks on Russia’s critical infrastructure have increased as Western officials said Kyiv’s war effort could go beyond the country’s defense to target Russia.
A junior UK defense minister said last month that it was perfectly legitimate for Ukraine to attack logistics and supply lines inside Russia with weapons provided by the West, marking a major turnaround for the UK. , which has provided weapons for months. To save Ukraine from Russian attack
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also said last month that the US aims not only to help Ukraine defend itself, but to undermine Russia’s military capabilities to such an extent that it cannot do the kinds of things it did. in attacking Ukraine. ,
Other analysts did not rule out other factors, including Russia’s lax security standards. There could also be explosions as Russia delves deeper into its strategic stockpile, deploying missiles and artillery that have long been dormant in military warehouses.
“The explosions could also be the result of accidents, possibly Russian weapons being stored or transported within military logistics networks,” said Nick Reynolds, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based security think tank.