New DelhiIt was no big surprise when Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati on Wednesday announced her party’s support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) vice-president candidate Jagdeep Dhankhar.
In the last two months, this is the third time that a BSP leader has shown his friendly stand towards the BJP.
first instance During the Lok Sabha by-elections to Azamgarh and Rampur in UP in June, both were strongholds of the Samajwadi Party (SP). It is believed that the BSP played a key role in ensuring the BJP’s victory in these seats by not contesting in Rampur (seems to avoid splitting Dalit votes) and fielding a Muslim candidate in Azamgarh. Apparently to cut down on SP votes.
second example When Mayawati supported Draupadi Murmu, the NDA candidate for the post of President. In her June 25 announcement, Mayawati claimed that the tribal community, to which Murmu belongs, was “an important part of the BSP’s movement” – the party’s argument for representing Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs). d’etre), Other Backward Classes (OBC), and religious minorities.
On 3 August, Mayawati followed a similar line when she announced on Twitter that the BSP would extend its support to Dhankhar in view of the wider “public interest and the party’s own agitation”. The Vice Presidential elections will be held on 6 August.
2. They will be ready to sit in order to be able to do so to be born. (2/2)
— Mayawati (@mayawati) 3 August 2022
Amidst speculations of Mayawati Trying to ally with BJP Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BSP leaders insisted that this was not the case.
Speaking to ThePrint, BSP MP Malook Nagar said that his party supported Dhankhar because he belonged to a “backward” class (Dhankhar is a member of the Jat community).
“It is part of the BSP movement to support backward classes, dalits and tribals. So we first supported a tribal woman as the President and now an OBC as the Vice President. Supporting disadvantaged groups is our principle and it has nothing to do with the BJP,” Nagar said. “Our support is in the empowerment of communities and in the national interest.”
Another BSP leader, however, said the party is eyeing Jat voters ahead of the Rajasthan assembly elections next year. The BSP won six seats in the state in the 2018 elections (contested in 1990), though all went to the Congress.
Meanwhile, political observers are speculating that Mayawati’s antics show that she is trying to kill two birds with one stone: weakening the SP and pacifying the BJP.
Shashi Kant Pandey, professor of Indian politics at Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University in Lucknow, told ThePrint that he believes Mayawati’s “first priority” is to fight the SP in Uttar Pradesh, which also “suits” the BJP.
“SP is the second biggest force in Uttar Pradesh, and enemy of both BSP and BJP. In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP got a significant share of non-Yadav OBC and Dalit votes in western and eastern UP. By giving her support to a tribal as president, a Jat as vice-president, and fielding Muslim candidates, Mayawati is sending a message to these communities for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections,” Pandey said.
Another factor, he said, may be to remain in the good books of the BJP, which has been repeatedly accused by opposition leaders of diverting central investigative agencies.
Noting that Mayawati has already announced her “succession plan” by appointing her younger brother Anand Kumar and nephew Akash Anand. top party postShe “does not want to risk the displeasure of agencies” especially since opposition to the BJP does not come with guaranteed returns, Pandey said.
BJP is not complaining.
“We are trying to get more numbers for the vice-presidential election by breaking the opposition unity, as we did in the presidential election. As far as BSP support is concerned, it is good for the BJP,” a BJP leader told ThePrint on condition of anonymity.
The BJP already has 395 votes in the vice-presidential election – Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs – well ahead of the victory mark of 388.
The BSP has 10 MPs in the Lok Sabha and one in the Rajya Sabha. It has one MLA each in UP and MP.
Mutual benefit for 2024?
The political calculations ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections could be at the center of Mayawati’s apparent ‘support’ of the BJP, especially in the wake of the BSP losing its electoral fray over the years.
Mayawati’s decisions in the June by-elections in UP facilitated the BJP’s victory and in a way increased the political relevance of the BSP. No BSP candidate was fielded in Rampur, considered the stronghold of Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan, leading to a face-off between the SP and the BJP.
In Azamgarh, the BSP fielded a Muslim candidate, which split the SP’s Muslim vote and the BJP candidate benefited. Both the winning BJP candidates were members of OBC communities.
“Mayawati knows that she cannot win elections only with Jatav-Dalit votes,” Pandey said. “Among Dalits, most of the non-Jatavs have moved to the BJP. His access to brahmins Help did not come before the assembly elections, so they need other caste groups to remain relevant. ,
Lok Sabha elections are near, Pandey said, adding that Mayawati aims to weaken the SP by cutting down on Muslim votes as well.
The BJP leader who was quoted earlier saw that the BSP could, by denting its OBC and Muslim votebanks, and mostly spoil it for the SP.
“If we look at the political arithmetic of 2024, it is important for the BSP to remain relevant to divide SP’s Muslim and OBC votes,” he said. “The BSP has a base across UP… It can make the elections a triangular contest.”
Malook Nagar, however, said the BSP’s intention was not to woo the BJP, but to stick to the “party strategy” of supporting marginalized communities.
Mayawati’s ‘support’ is nothing new
Over the years, Mayawati has appeared to support the BJP in various ways.
In July 2019, when the Modi government introduced triple talaq bill BSP in Parliament abstinence By voting. Mayawati in August 2019 supported Central government’s decision to abrogate Article 370.
Earlier this year, during the UP assembly elections, the BSP had fielded 88 Muslim candidates as an attempt to cut votes for the SP. The BSP lost all these seats, but it managed to split the votes and in many of these constituencies the BJP won.
Mayawati’s election campaign was also silent – she addressed only 18 public meetings. His relaxed outlook And it appears that the abandonment of non-Jatav Dalits left them with only one seat in the assembly.
“BSP’s shrinking base really helped the BJP”, said Professor Badri Narayan of GB Pant Social Institute, Allahabad.
He said, “Dalit groups benefiting from Modi’s welfare have left the BSP in light of Mayawati’s lack of aggression on Dalit issues and BJP-RSS’s aggressive approach to woo her.”
Seeing this, it seems that BJP is taking some revenge for this friendly. For example, in the November 2020 Rajya Sabha election, the BJP could have won nine seats from UP with the help of its allies, but instead fielded only eight candidates. As a result, Ramji Gautam of BSP won one seat.
Then, during the UP elections, the Union Home Minister made a kind word To say about the BSP in an interview, he said he believed the party would “get votes” whether they convert seats or not.
(Edited by Aswari Singh)