Seven-phase elections in Uttar Pradesh are entering their final phase, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its arch-rival Samajwadi Party fighting a fierce battle in the remaining 54 assembly constituencies in nine districts of Varanasi, Mirzapur and Azamgarh divisions. is likely to. (SP).
While the BJP hopes to continue its dominance, the SP not only wants to protect its stronghold Azamgarh, but also wants to expand its influence across the region. However, for both the BJP and the SP, a lot will depend on how their allies perform in this phase and the mood of the most backward communities.
The constituencies where polling is to be held are Atraulia, Gopalpur, Sagadi, Mubarakpur, AzamgarhNizamabad, Phulpur-Powai, Didarganj, Lalganj (SC), Mehnagar (SC), Madhuban, Ghosi, Muhammadabad-Gohna (SC),Mau, Badlapur, Shahganj, Ghazipur, Jangipur, Zahurabad, Mohammadabad, Zamania, Mughalsarai, Sakaldiha, Saidraja, Chakia (SC), Pindra, Ajra (SC), Shivpur, Rohaniya, Varanasi North, Varanasi South, Varanasi Cantonment, Sewapuri, Bhadohi, Gyanpur, Aurai (SC), Chanbe (SC), Mirzapur, Majhwan, Chunar, Madihan, Ghorawal, Robertsganj, Obra (ST) and Duddhi (ST). Out of these, 11 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes.
In the 2017 assembly elections, 29 of these 54 seats were won by the BJP and seven by its allies. SP had won 11 seats and BSP had won six. In the 2012 elections, the SP won 34, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) seven and the BJP just four of them. Three seats were won by the Congress and five other smaller parties.
last remaining belt of Eastern Uttar Pradesh The voting on March 7 has been marked by some interesting aspects, both in terms of current politics and larger demographic realities.
in the capacity of being a Member of Parliament from VaranasiPrime Minister Narendra Modi has probably been the biggest influence in the region since the 2014 general election. The party’s performance in the region is also linked to the influence of ‘Brand Modi’.
PM’s personal relationship Varanasi, with its larger Hindutva and backward caste identity, has worked well for the BJP in 2017. However, it still faced some tough challenges from the larger SP-BSP alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Dalit-OBC caste alliance of BSP-SP was the most successful in this area. The BSP had won from Ghazipur, Ghosi, Jaunpur and Lalganj parliamentary constituencies, while SP chief Akhilesh Yadav won from Azamgarh.
The 2019 Lok Sabha election results are a reminder of the strategic importance of lower castes, especially to the most backward people in the region. No wonder it was the same region where the two Lok Sabha seats of Robertsganj and Mirzapur were won by the Kurmi-OBC based Apna Dal(S), which contested the elections in alliance with the BJP. Apna Dal president Anupriya Patel, who is also a minister in the Modi cabinet, is still with the BJP in the fight for the 2022 assembly elections.
cooperating factor
In the 2017 assembly elections, a major factor behind BJP’s expansion in this belt was its allies Apna Dal and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). They brought in the much needed vital support of the Kurmi and Rajbhar backward castes. Om Prakash Rajbhar-led SBSP also won three seats and Apna Dal got four.
The Nishad Party, which contested independently outside the NDA, also won one seat. This Nishad backward The caste-based regional party is now with the BJP and has three candidates in the seventh phase.
However, the BJP’s challenge has increased with the SBSP moving out of its fold and now firmly sticking with the SP. Rajbhar, who was also made a minister in the Yogi Adityanath cabinet in 2017, later split and is currently one of the BJP’s most vocal critics among the non-Yadav OBC leadership.
The Rajbhar community has a strong presence in the districts of Azamgarh, Mau and Varanasi. The SBSP, in alliance with the SP, is contesting 17 seats across the state, of which eight are in this final phase. The SP leadership is hopeful that with a strong Yadav-OBC presence in the region, Rajbhar can give it the much-needed advantage in its favour.
Even the BJP is gearing up to deal with it Rajbhari The challenge is, in this final phase, there is a tough fight even for the influential Kurmi vote bank. SP is trying to harm this community by forming an alliance with the separated faction. cast yourApna Dal (Kamerawadi) led by Krishna Patel, mother of Union Cabinet Minister Anupriya Patel.
While the Apna Dal (S) is contesting on four seats, the other faction is contesting five seats in the last phase in alliance with the SP. Though mother-daughter fight for political legacy is not new, but this is the first time that Krishna Patel faction is contesting assembly elections in alliance with a big political player.
Undoubtedly, for both the BJP and the SP, it is the “collaborative factor” that is very important in this last phase of the competition. A lot will depend on the impact these smaller players can make.
BJP’s stronghold, SP’s stronghold
In December last year, Prime Minister Modi made a new beginning for the ancient city. VaranasiInaugurating the grand new Kashi Vishwanath temple corridor. Two months down the line, the BJP will certainly hope that the corridor will also be the much-needed Hindutva glue to cut across caste fault lines, in the final phase and in the bitterly contested final phase.
Since 2014, after Modi became MP from Varanasi, his influence has remained strong and almost unchanged in the district’s seven constituencies. in 2012, BJP Only three of them had won, while two were won by the SP and one by the BSP and Apna Dal (S). In 2017, the BJP, along with its allies, had captured all seven seats, five won by BJP and one each by Apna Dal and SBSP.
Compatible with Modi Factor Caste The equations were also important in the other 12 seats in Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and Sant Ravidas Nagar districts. The BJP had won four of the five seats in Mirzapur and its ally Apna Dal won the fifth seat. They simultaneously won all four seats in Sonbhadra, of which two are reserved constituencies, and two out of three in Sant Ravidas Nagar.
Even in the 2019 general elections, the BJP and Apna Dal alliance dominated this area. Varanasi Modi himself won, while Robertsganj and Mirzapur were won by his ally.
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However, in Jaunpur, Ghazipur and Chandauli districts, which also come under Varanasi division, BJP In 2017 there was partial success. It won four out of nine seats in Jaunpur, three out of seven in Ghazipur and four out of five in Chandauli. Despite the saffron tsunami and no significant caste-based alliance, the SP won three seats in Jaunpur, two in Ghazipur and one in Chandauli. The SP will now surely hope to recreate the magic of 2012, when it won seven seats in Jaunpur and six in Ghazipur.
Despite the huge wave, the biggest challenge before the BJP in the 2017 elections was in Azamgarh. Muslim and Yadav The OBC dominated district has been the strongest bastion for the SP. It had won five of the 10 assembly constituencies. Four had gone to the BSP, while only one was won by the BJP. BJP was nowhere in 2012. Then SP got nine and BSP got one victory.
The SP is once again relying on its tried-and-tested Muslim Yadav (MY) equation. Which this time seems to be getting stronger behind the party. Neighboring Mau will also have an eye Mukhtar AnsariEye Factor, the sitting MLA who has been projected by the BJP as the biggest symbol of organized crime and mafia in the state.
Currently jailed Mukhtar himself is not in the electoral race, his son Abbas is contesting from the family stronghold of Mau Sadar on an SBSP ticket. The SP hopes that Mau will be reclaimed with the Rajbhar factor and the Ansari family clout. In 2017, the BJP had won three of the four seats in the district.
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