AAt the Quad meeting in Hiroshima on Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered to host the next summit in India. After a potentially eventful 2023 when India hosts global giants including the P5 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in July and the G20 in September, the Quad summit in 2024 will confirm India’s global stature in an election year. Think of the President of the United States and the Japanese and Australian Prime Ministers returning to India within a year for the Quad meeting.
The Modi government worked hard to host the 2023 G20 summit. India was to take the rotating chairmanship of the grouping and host the summit in 2021, but it swapped it with Italy to host it in 2022 – the 75th year of its independence. later, it replaced With Indonesia once again to host the G20 in 2023.
For the Quad summit, Australia was supposed to host this year, but it had to be held on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Japan as US President Joe Biden had to return home for debt-cap talks. The Quad venue could have shifted to Australia for 2024, but PM Modi took the opportunity to offer to host it in India.
This gives the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a perfect opportunity to develop a new election issue in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – Vishwaguru Or world leader. The description may apply equally to India’s global stature and to PM Modi. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it was about a ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ replacing a ‘weak’ Prime Minister and copying the Gujarat model of development across the country. In 2019, it was about a strong and decisive PM who would not hesitate to attack from across the border in Pakistan and also about a compassionate, welfare PM who would give LPG cylinders to poor people, electricity to villages, Will transfer money directly to their bank accounts, build toilets for them and insure their health.
In 2024, BJP will seek votes for such a Prime Minister who has made India a Vishwaguru., The heads of the most powerful nations are traveling thousands of miles to walk shoulder to shoulder with him. Just imagine how much opposition BJP leaders will present, citing how opposition leaders ‘condemn’ India by demanding India abroad Interference to restore democracy, while PM Modi has raised India’s global stature to unprecedented heights. It will be a call to Indians to vote for national pride and not for worldly matters related to their daily lives. Voters may be increasingly transactional, but against a prime minister who has taken a public stand Rewari‘ (freebie) culture can hope to garner a new mandate for national pride.
Read also: The time has come for India to show the credentials of ‘Vishwaguru’. start business with pakistan
Opposition mail for Vishwaguru
Is the opposition any match for this Vishwaguru, As per the declared position of their leaders, they will leave this ‘Modi vs who’ question for later. However, history tells us that the opposition needs a face to topple a popularly elected and stable government – think of Jayaprakash Narayan (JP) in 1977, VP Singh in 1989 and Modi in 2014 Think.
It can be argued that the opposition did not have a popular face in 2004 to topple the popular Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. The counterargument is that the Vajpayee government dug its own grave with its India Shining campaign. The Sonia Gandhi-led Congress then secured 145 Lok Sabha seats, just 7 more than the BJP.
Who else but Rahul Gandhi?
If the opposition leaves the ‘Modi vs Who’ question open, it will literally mean another Rahul Gandhi vs Modi fight. They should believe in the adage of third time’s lucky. But for now, let’s leave aside the Rahul Gandhi question.
Who are the other PM potentials in the opposition camp, regardless of their political stature and stature? Leaders who have either been friendly with the BJP or are unwilling to break bread with the Congress at this point of time can be safely exempted – Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik, Andhra Pradesh CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, Andhra Pradesh Leader of the Opposition N Chandrababu Naidu and former UP CM Mayawati.
The Congress seems unwilling to join forces with two others—Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal—as it did not invite them to the swearing-in ceremony of Karnataka’s new Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on May 20.
Anyway, these two can fetch the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats which is not enough for the Congress to fulfill its aspirations, if any. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, though a former chief minister of a state that sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, does not yet have that political stature – at least not before the 2024 elections. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin may be trying to bring the opposition together under a social justice platform, but he has not yet shown any ambition to become the prime minister.
This leaves us with some serious contenders – Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Of all the contenders outside the Congress, Pawar has the best credentials for the job. He comes from a state (Maharashtra) that sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha and has the political stature and statesmanship to bring them all together. And Congress may also bow down to him.
But there are two big obstacles in this.
Pawar will be in his 84th Next year is when the next Lok Sabha elections will be held, and he is not well enough to undertake the grueling task of a nationwide campaign. There is also a question mark over his appeal outside Maharashtra.
As far as Mamta Banerjee is concerned, her public pronunciations There is no help against Rahul Gandhi. This is apart from the question of his appeal beyond West Bengal.
This puts Nitish Kumar in a dire position. in my #politically correct column In August 2022, I argued why he is the Congress’ best bet in 2024. I have broadly given five reasons for this. Firstly, he enjoys a clean image and is not dynastic. Second, their Kurmi status may inspire Other Backward Classes (OBCs) – not only in Bihar but also in UP and other states. Third, the ‘Bihar PM’ slogan could serve to counter Modi’s popularity in the state, which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Fourth, Rahul Gandhi is known to have a soft corner for them. Finally, at 72, he does not pose any long-term threat to the Congress when he is heavily dependent on allies to prolong his political career.
I still have the same arguments as far as the Prime Ministerial candidate from the Hindi heartland is concerned.
Read also: BJP’s 2014 mandate is nearing its expiry date. Modi’s magic did not work in Karnataka
a silent expanding footprint
I am tempted to toss some other candidates if there is to be one from the Congress. Before I dare to say what many of Rahul’s loyalists and admirers may be, let me caution the faint-hearted: what about projecting Priyanka Vadra as the party’s prime ministerial candidate? I know how they’ll react: How stupid! But just think – when was the last time a woman was projected for this position? Indira Gandhi, isn’t it?
In contemporary Indian politics, women voters have few options to identify themselves with when the current BJP-led government begins to believe in the power of masculinity. So confident is the ruling party about PM Modi’s appeal among women voters, thanks to his welfare schemes, that it is India’s top woman to protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar against sexual harassment allegations by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh Doesn’t care about wrestlers. It’s been three weeks since the Supreme Court forced the Delhi Police Lodge An FIR was registered against him under the POCSO Act, but the police did not even call him for questioning, leave alone arresting him.
Another: Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar, who has been fiercely defending his minister and sexual harassment accused Sandeep Singh threw the woman sarpanch scarf at his feet last week and Saying,You don’t listen to me, it’s okay. We had a fatal attack on my husband. of a woman, a Hindustani The respect of a woman is in her dupatta. here you go, here’s one Hindustani woman’s scarf (You don’t listen to me, it doesn’t matter. My husband was attacked. The honor of a woman, an Indian woman, lies in that.) scarf, here it is from an indian lady scarf,
PM Modi’s welfare measures – From building toilets, giving LPG cylinders, launching Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign, to providing free ration during Covid-19 – have garnered the support they enjoy today. However, the last few assembly elections have seen a decline in women’s support for the BJP. In the Himachal Pradesh elections of 2022, according to Lokniti-CSDS post-poll, the BJP will see a decline of six percentage points in the support of women voters survey, In Karnataka, the Congress won a majority of seats in constituencies where the number of women outnumbered men. The Indian Express informed of,
One can argue that the same trend may not hold when women vote for PM Modi, but it is reason enough for the Congress to look into that constituency. The problem of BJP is that it has not promoted women leaders. Of the 30 ministers in the Modi cabinet, only two are women – Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Women and Child Development Minister Smriti Irani. While the former has been confined to her role in government, Irani, despite her abilities and potential, has largely been on the sidelines.
At the same time, Congress or the opposition has a chance to woo women voters. Mamata Banerjee has apparently got him on her side in West Bengal and there could potentially be an appeal between him outside his state. But, as mentioned above, the Congress has several objections against him.
Whereas Priyanka Vadra becomes another option. She is quietly expanding her footprint outside UP, where she is the general secretary in-charge. He played a key role in the victory of the Congress in Himachal. His campaign created a lot of buzz in Karnataka. Right after the Karnataka election campaign ended, she was campaigning for her party in Telangana. She is now scheduled to visit Madhya Pradesh in the second week of June to speed up her party’s preparations. His profile as the party’s national campaigner and strategist has been rising, almost without notice. Party leaders and rank and file are increasingly looking for him.
BJP remains wary of Priyanka Vadra even after targeting PM Modi during Karnataka Election,Don’t talk here and there, tell me why you looted the caravan (Don’t chant, tell us why the loot happened).”
Projecting a woman prime ministerial face by the Congress could threaten the BJP’s support base among women, but the ruling party may instead count on Sonia Gandhi to put forward her son. Priyanka’s candidature may certainly have other complications – the BJP’s scathing of dynastic politics, her husband’s allegations of corruption, and her political and administrative inexperience. But she is putting the BJP on the defensive. The ruling party’s reluctance to target her could have encouraged the Congress to experiment with female faces. But, for all we know about the Gandhi family, Priyanka has to play second fiddle to her brother.
last option
After this we are left with the last option – Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge. After Jagjivan Ram, in a country with about 17 percent Dalit population, there is no political stature to see any Dalit as a contender for the post of Prime Minister. Barring Mayawati, who has a wide following among Dalits, even in UP, there is no national Dalit leader who can capture the imagination of this oppressed and disenfranchised constituency. Kharge, as the president of the largest opposition party, is a potential prime ministerial candidate, but the Congress is unlikely to look beyond the Gandhi family.
Before I end I have to give a warning. Nitish Kumar, Kharge or Priyanka still have no match with PM Modi in terms of popularity. But they can help the opposition build a new narrative when it has nothing to offer beyond anti-incumbency. Anyway, the opposition parties will have to place their best hope in the proverbial third-time-is-lucky.
DK Singh is the political editor of ThePrint. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Hamra Like)