Elections were held in the Philippines on Monday for a new president, pitting incumbent Vice President Lenny Robredo against Ferdinand. Marcos Junior, the son of a notorious dictator whose 20-year rule ended in a 1986 uprising.
There are some issues going on here:
How will each candidate govern?
Marcos is unlikely to rule like his authoritarian father, although strong-style leadership is to be expected.
This approach proved popular under the incumbent Rodrigo DuterteWho developed an image as a ruthless, unbridled leader who worked hard.
If elected, Marcos would likely use his family’s influence to consolidate power through transfers, appointments and connections in the bureaucracy, judiciary and other major bodies, instead of potentially at odds with members of his wider political network.
He can expect more favorable Congress And the Senate compared to Robredo.
Robredo’s victory will bring a more liberal approach and focus on education, health care, poverty and gender equality, while strengthening institutions and fostering market competitiveness.
She has pledged to improve social welfare such as unemployment benefits and family support.
However, a Robredo presidency would probably run into turmoil. She has already been a prime target for hate and propaganda campaigns as a vice president, who dared to challenge Duterte.
What about economy?
Neither candidate will advocate for significant economic restructuring, although both have promised to prioritize recovery from the pandemic and may target investment reforms such as cutting red tape.
Robredo has promised to increase investment, level the playing field for business and promote public-private partnerships to tackle climate change.
Marcos has disclosed little about the policy and has shied away from presidential debates and difficult media interviews, focusing on a simple but vague message of unity. Continuity is expected with Duterte, for example on major infrastructure projects.
Some economic risk advisors see a high chance of corruption and nepotism under the Marcos presidency, and a scope for score-settlement and retaliation against businesses linked to the family’s opponents.
What will foreign policy look like?
The Philippines’ longstanding relationship with the former colonial power makes the United States unlikely to be threatened by either candidate, which has remained stagnant during Duterte’s years of very public hostility toward Washington.
The Defense Coalition is critical to internal security and military capability, and preserving it is critical to the President of the Philippines’ relationship with the Armed Forces.
Marcos is seen as a candidate closer to China and may benefit from his business interests. He favors a two-pronged approach that is preferable to Beijing, but will disappoint advocates of a multilateral approach that Robredo is likely to pursue.
Marcos has been pragmatic in the belief that the Philippines is no match militarily, so a tough stance should not be expected. Robredo will protest Chinese provocation, and remind Beijing that an international arbitral court ruling in 2016 invalidated most of its claims to the South China Sea.
What has been Duterte’s role?
Duterte has had a poor relationship with Robredo, but has been characteristically kind to Marcos, both praising him and questioning his suitability to lead.
Duterte has not endorsed Marcos or any other candidate, but importantly he has not sought to go against him or hurt his reputation.
A major victory for Marcos was securing the president’s daughter, Sarah Duterte-Carpio, as his vice-president running mate, allowing him to absorb some existing cult-like followers and create new ones, especially on social media. Helped to attract voters.
The dynamics of the two families have led to speculation of a quid pro quo that helped secure the presidency DuterteWhich in turn made the way easier for Marcos.
Notable was that Duterte publicly thanked politician and Marcos Jr.’s sister, Imi, for funding his campaign – which he later dismissed as a joke. He also sometimes praised the late dictator and controversially allowed his body to be taken to the “Heroes” cemetery in Manila after years of unsuccessful attempts by the family.
How important is succession to DUTERTE?
Political vendetta is common in the Philippines and former presidents often face legal action or even jail time. Duterte has made some enemies.
Although this did not affect his popularity, Duterte’s presidency was filled with scandals involving aides or appointments, some of which could resurface later.
Activists and lawyer groups have blamed Duterte for the alleged executions of thousands of drug pushers and users during his war on the drug and may launch legal action when he leaves office, or lobbies. International Criminal Court to resume the investigation.
Robredo has been a staunch critic of the president’s deadly methods of fighting drugs and crime and would be more likely to enable an investigation into Duterte. But with his daughter as vice president and Marcos in charge, he will remain well insulated.
There are some issues going on here:
How will each candidate govern?
Marcos is unlikely to rule like his authoritarian father, although strong-style leadership is to be expected.
This approach proved popular under the incumbent Rodrigo DuterteWho developed an image as a ruthless, unbridled leader who worked hard.
If elected, Marcos would likely use his family’s influence to consolidate power through transfers, appointments and connections in the bureaucracy, judiciary and other major bodies, instead of potentially at odds with members of his wider political network.
He can expect more favorable Congress And the Senate compared to Robredo.
Robredo’s victory will bring a more liberal approach and focus on education, health care, poverty and gender equality, while strengthening institutions and fostering market competitiveness.
She has pledged to improve social welfare such as unemployment benefits and family support.
However, a Robredo presidency would probably run into turmoil. She has already been a prime target for hate and propaganda campaigns as a vice president, who dared to challenge Duterte.
What about economy?
Neither candidate will advocate for significant economic restructuring, although both have promised to prioritize recovery from the pandemic and may target investment reforms such as cutting red tape.
Robredo has promised to increase investment, level the playing field for business and promote public-private partnerships to tackle climate change.
Marcos has disclosed little about the policy and has shied away from presidential debates and difficult media interviews, focusing on a simple but vague message of unity. Continuity is expected with Duterte, for example on major infrastructure projects.
Some economic risk advisors see a high chance of corruption and nepotism under the Marcos presidency, and a scope for score-settlement and retaliation against businesses linked to the family’s opponents.
What will foreign policy look like?
The Philippines’ longstanding relationship with the former colonial power makes the United States unlikely to be threatened by either candidate, which has remained stagnant during Duterte’s years of very public hostility toward Washington.
The Defense Coalition is critical to internal security and military capability, and preserving it is critical to the President of the Philippines’ relationship with the Armed Forces.
Marcos is seen as a candidate closer to China and may benefit from his business interests. He favors a two-pronged approach that is preferable to Beijing, but will disappoint advocates of a multilateral approach that Robredo is likely to pursue.
Marcos has been pragmatic in the belief that the Philippines is no match militarily, so a tough stance should not be expected. Robredo will protest Chinese provocation, and remind Beijing that an international arbitral court ruling in 2016 invalidated most of its claims to the South China Sea.
What has been Duterte’s role?
Duterte has had a poor relationship with Robredo, but has been characteristically kind to Marcos, both praising him and questioning his suitability to lead.
Duterte has not endorsed Marcos or any other candidate, but importantly he has not sought to go against him or hurt his reputation.
A major victory for Marcos was securing the president’s daughter, Sarah Duterte-Carpio, as his vice-president running mate, allowing him to absorb some existing cult-like followers and create new ones, especially on social media. Helped to attract voters.
The dynamics of the two families have led to speculation of a quid pro quo that helped secure the presidency DuterteWhich in turn made the way easier for Marcos.
Notable was that Duterte publicly thanked politician and Marcos Jr.’s sister, Imi, for funding his campaign – which he later dismissed as a joke. He also sometimes praised the late dictator and controversially allowed his body to be taken to the “Heroes” cemetery in Manila after years of unsuccessful attempts by the family.
How important is succession to DUTERTE?
Political vendetta is common in the Philippines and former presidents often face legal action or even jail time. Duterte has made some enemies.
Although this did not affect his popularity, Duterte’s presidency was filled with scandals involving aides or appointments, some of which could resurface later.
Activists and lawyer groups have blamed Duterte for the alleged executions of thousands of drug pushers and users during his war on the drug and may launch legal action when he leaves office, or lobbies. International Criminal Court to resume the investigation.
Robredo has been a staunch critic of the president’s deadly methods of fighting drugs and crime and would be more likely to enable an investigation into Duterte. But with his daughter as vice president and Marcos in charge, he will remain well insulated.