If the recent military exploits of the superpowers have taught us anything, it is that entering a country is much easier than exiting at the right time. The Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and the US in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan are all examples of incursions that resulted in longer stays and enormous costs.
now that president Vladimir Putin Of Russia The war in Ukraine has started, it should also be clear in his mind when and how to end it. If he thinks about it coldly and rationally, he will never get a better opportunity than now, provided he can form the government Kiev agree to abandon its purpose of joining NATO and remain neutral between Russia and the West on all security matters. Ukraine has already indicated that he is ready to talk.
In a jiffy, it would allay Russian fears of a ‘NATO dagger pointed at the heart of Russia’. Putin He would get what he wanted, while leaving the US completely humiliated NATO. In the eyes of the world community, they will be branded as unreliable allies who left Ukraine in its time of need. NATO can talk about how Ukraine is not a member, so it cannot be expected to send troops there. This is technically correct, but optics matter and the overwhelming belief is that the West first provoked Ukraine to stand up to Russia and then abandoned it in times of need. Right now, Putin has the option of declaring victory and exiting Ukraine.
What if he chooses not to? Most likely, from here to Russia things will only go downhill. Ukraine is not crumbling like a pack of cards. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was completely unpopular before the war, is now emerging as a heroic figure for refusing to leave Kiev despite fears for his personal safety. There are reports of road accidents in many cities. The battle for Kiev could be very bloody.
Urban guerrilla fighting is very different from traditional warfare between two armies. If civilian casualties occur, it could result in global outrage and prompt the West to impose sanctions that would actually cut Russia. If Kiev falls, Ukrainian resistance groups could emerge, which could see Russia trapped in an Afghanistan-like situation.
Putin’s limit for Russian casualties will inevitably be low, especially since anti-war protests are already raging in Russia. Anything more than a low body count will tarnish his image inside and outside his country. His government’s model and his international strategy rely heavily on image projection as an unshakable and bloodthirsty mighty.
A deal with Kiev would give Putin a win and make the US appear as an ineffective superpower that could neither stop an invasion nor play a role in ending the war. This is a smart choice for the President of Russia. The question is, will he take it?
now that president Vladimir Putin Of Russia The war in Ukraine has started, it should also be clear in his mind when and how to end it. If he thinks about it coldly and rationally, he will never get a better opportunity than now, provided he can form the government Kiev agree to abandon its purpose of joining NATO and remain neutral between Russia and the West on all security matters. Ukraine has already indicated that he is ready to talk.
In a jiffy, it would allay Russian fears of a ‘NATO dagger pointed at the heart of Russia’. Putin He would get what he wanted, while leaving the US completely humiliated NATO. In the eyes of the world community, they will be branded as unreliable allies who left Ukraine in its time of need. NATO can talk about how Ukraine is not a member, so it cannot be expected to send troops there. This is technically correct, but optics matter and the overwhelming belief is that the West first provoked Ukraine to stand up to Russia and then abandoned it in times of need. Right now, Putin has the option of declaring victory and exiting Ukraine.
What if he chooses not to? Most likely, from here to Russia things will only go downhill. Ukraine is not crumbling like a pack of cards. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was completely unpopular before the war, is now emerging as a heroic figure for refusing to leave Kiev despite fears for his personal safety. There are reports of road accidents in many cities. The battle for Kiev could be very bloody.
Urban guerrilla fighting is very different from traditional warfare between two armies. If civilian casualties occur, it could result in global outrage and prompt the West to impose sanctions that would actually cut Russia. If Kiev falls, Ukrainian resistance groups could emerge, which could see Russia trapped in an Afghanistan-like situation.
Putin’s limit for Russian casualties will inevitably be low, especially since anti-war protests are already raging in Russia. Anything more than a low body count will tarnish his image inside and outside his country. His government’s model and his international strategy rely heavily on image projection as an unshakable and bloodthirsty mighty.
A deal with Kiev would give Putin a win and make the US appear as an ineffective superpower that could neither stop an invasion nor play a role in ending the war. This is a smart choice for the President of Russia. The question is, will he take it?
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