I< India's data market is becoming increasingly private? It appears, although not entirely so.
Consider the following: The most commonly cited employment numbers are those using a survey by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), whose sample sizes match those used by the government.
Perhaps the most reliable source of data on the real state of Indian school education is Pratham, a non-profit organization that annually conducts the widely anticipated survey of education.
Other numbers that are closely tracked include IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, which serves as a reliable guide to economic momentum. CRISIL, an analytics firm, is a well-known source of corporate credibility. And there is no rival to the Center for Technology, Innovation and Economic Research (CTIER) for a range of data on technology issues.
Meanwhile, private monsoon forecasters like Skymet have outperformed the government’s meteorological department, at least in a few years. And when the World Health Organization says that Covid-related deaths in India are 10 times higher than the government’s, many will be surprised about the official figures.
Even the Reserve Bank of India, which continues to be a reliable source for quality data, finds it difficult to match the speed and extent of data on the performance of the corporate sector. One can go with such examples.
CMIE, Pratham, CRISIL, Skymet, IHS Markit, CTIER and others like them have come into existence, or are in prominence, in the last two or three decades. This is as it should be; A developing economy will have new and multiple sources of data, including those from digital sources. The government on its part may question some country rankings given by international non-governmental bodies, such as a recent hunger index, but its own data has increasingly been mired in controversy.
The result is questionable quality and unreliable frequency for some of the key economic data held by the government – for most of which there may be no comparable private alternative.
There is no consumption survey data in the country after 2011-12 (the figures for 2017-18 were suppressed). It’s been the same story with employment figures: The government has choked up the numbers, trying to replace the old accepted (like incomplete) with partial options like the number of people with provident fund accounts. And the GDP figures of the past have been revised repeatedly.
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IA baseline data-gathering exercise, like the census conducted every decade since 1881, was due in 2021. The reason for this is Covid, but people have been moving relatively freely for a year or more without a China-style lockdown. However, the survey work will not start till next year.
Census provides many socio-economic data, not just population figures. The damage done to statistical systems and policy analysis due to the absence of such basic data should be obvious.
Not everything changes for the worse. Some data released by the government has become more frequent (such as quarterly GDP data, which previously did not exist); Some data packs have seen improvements in functionality; Other numbers are revealed faster than before, such as business statistics, or are more transparent – such as tax and fiscal data.
Still, you can visit almost any economic ministry website to find out how outdated and insufficient the data presented is, and how often it tends to hide inconvenient facts. Like many other things, statistics have become more political.
Digitization has made a huge difference, and shed new light on the data-dark corners of the economy. As an example, the new credit bureaus that collect information on the credit records of companies and individuals help lenders of all kinds. Similarly, the development of online sales and payment systems has created new sources of data on consumer behavior.
An economy aiming to become the third largest economy in the world in less than a decade cannot plan and function properly without data that meets the tests of speed, frequency, reliability and completeness. So the development of private data sources is a hugely positive development. This should serve as a challenge for the government to improve its own record of producing timely and reliable data.
By special arrangement with Business Standard
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